Tropical Feel

Discussion: Hard to deduce much from 250/500mb levels. The jet will be a little N of NJ. Geopotential height anomalies are modeled only a little above average. But overall a near-zonal flow until a trough dips into the region Tuesday-Wednesday. For this weekend, NJ will sit under a tropical air mass mostly generated by moisture flow from the gulf and diurnal destabilization. Lots of puffy cumulus clouds until then grow large enough to empty out and throw Zues bolts before choking out on their own downdrafts. The quick pulsing kind of cells on radar. The rest of tonight (Friday) looks cloudy with anything from random sprinkles to downpours and rumbles possible. Saturday should start cloudy, possibly foggy, before the sun breaks through and danks it up into the 80s with elevated humidity. Sunday warmer but less humidity, likely the better day. Both days could feature showers and thunderstorms at any time. But as of now, it looks like Sunday should see less of that than Saturday.

Forecast

Friday (June 27) high temperatures should remain pinned for the rest of Friday (as of 530pm) in the mid-to-upper 60s mainly because of onshore flow and ocean temps. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with showers here and there. Occasional downpours and rumbles are possible, especially overnight. Winds should remain light out of the E/SE, a little breezier along the coast. Overnight lows should hold in the 65-70 range.

Saturday (June 28) high temperatures should push well into the 80s for most NJ locations with elevated humidity. A very tropical feel. Cloud in the morning, maybe some fog, but that should lift for at least some sun late-morning into afternoon. When the sun breaks through (likely early afternoon hours), it should feel like a tropical rainforest. Showers and thunderstorms are then possible from mid-to-late afternoon through evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 68-75 as more showers and thunderstorms push through the humid air mass.

Sunday (June 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. 90+ very likely, especially along the I-95/NJTP corridor. Humidity should be a little lower which should help the feel but it’s going to feel summery. Likely the better day of the weekend however isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out. Winds should switch to the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from about 60-72 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (June 30-July 4) indicates the tropical feel (heat and humidity) lasting through Monday and much of Tuesday. Tuesday PM is starting to come into focus for the cold front that pushes the entire air mass out of NJ but that will likely mean a series of storms and/or a stormfront Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM. We should then see warm temps (mid-80s) with lower humidity Wednesday through the 4^th into Saturday. Fingers-crossed this data holds for a beautiful July 4^th period. Sunday indicates the return of the next possible rain after it wraps up Wednesday AM. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers ad-free content, inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps and video releases (ahead of the public). At two bucks per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show additional support for Weather NJ. Think of it as a tip jar with perks. Available onFacebook or Patreon. 

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC