Trough Energy Pattern

Discussion: The light SNJ snowfall has ended and pushed out to sea. The biggest winners were S and E of the AC Expressway with flurries falling as far N as Burlington and Ocean Counties. A trailing round of lighter precipitation is likely overnight tonight (Friday night) into early Saturday morning. It could present wintry travel along and to the NW of I-95/NJTP, especially earlier in the morning when temps are still colder. Most likely just plain rain drizzle to the SE of I-95/NJTP. This should clear out by sunrise or just after Saturday morning and then we’re dry until about Wednesday as the colder trough of energy pattern persists. This pattern means a trough will stay over the E US with ample waves of energy rounding it of polar/Arctic origin. We’ll have warmer influence from S at times but much of this period will be cold enough to support snowfall if any of the energy waves time with it. This is the type of system that can show up on model guidance just 5 days or less from happening. Can’t let the guard down so I’ll be watching. Wednesday-Thursday Dec 10-11 is the next interest in precipitation. It looks a little warm right now but it’s been trending colder. After that we have a slightly more solid wintry signal in the Dec 13-15 range. These are the next two chances I’ll be watching for potential snow in NJ.

Forecast

Friday (Dec 5) high temperatures should range from 25-40 NNJ to SNJ in the afternoon after a cold morning of light snowfall across SNJ. Most of NJ N of I-195 and SWNJ is staying at or below freezing except for some ECNJ/SNJ/SENJ coastal areas warming with marine flow off the ocean. Skies should improve by afternoon for all areas but more light precipitation is possible overnight which could be wintry for NNJ and parts of WCNJ (rain for ECNJ/SENJ). Winds should eventually rest at light out of the SE. Overnight lows should eventually level off in the 25-30 range away from the ocean and closer to 35 along the coast.

Saturday (Dec 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should start cloudy with some light drizzle around, possibly wintry if still cold enough before sunrise – more so for NNJ and WCNJ. I’m expecting most precipitation to fall between 12am and sunrise. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to the 30-40 range NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Dec 7) high temperatures should reach the 35-42 range NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most NJ locations with coasties hanging near-freezing.

An early look at next week (Dec 8-12) indicates the cold pattern lingering with a few more snow chances later in the week (Dec 10-11 and Dec 13-15). I will be watching these periods closely, especially in this trough energy pattern. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC