Turning Milder (April 3-5)

Discussion: The upper jet is split with the primary streak to our S and a weaker dissolving streak to our N. The N part is powered by the backside (W side) of the departing upper-level low and front side (E side) of an approaching weak ridge. This upper-level N flow correlates with the backside (W side) surface flow behind the departing ocean storm currently set to retrograde just E of the 40N/70W benchmark. Said system is quite an ocean storm with possibly some sub-tropical characteristics. On Friday the far W extent of this storm during peak retrograde could bring some scattered showers and breezy winds out of the N. It probably won’t be until Saturday morning that the N flow relaxes. High pressure is then expected to move in and settle conditions region-wide with milder temperatures and calmer winds for Sunday. Next week then looks milder and more typical of April/spring with positive height anomalies (E US ridge) and an upper-jet overhead of NJ instead of to the S of NJ. It won’t be hot but it should be much nicer than the current N flow situation.

Friday (April 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks but likely some rain showers. Winds should be breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.

Saturday (April 4) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 40s for most areas.  

Sunday (April 5) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ but slightly cooler along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coast. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds. A little cloudier for NNJ…a little sunnier for SNJ. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most areas.

An early look at next week indicates milder conditions with high temperatures reaching into the 60s. A few spring showers around but no major rain systems expected as of now. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™