Unseasonable Warmth into a Dry Weekend!

Discussion: The upper-levels should form a strong and prolonged ridge over the E US this week into the weekend. This means anonymously mild/warm temperatures and likely no rain. You heard right, the weekend, this weekend, right before Halloween, currently looks mild and DRY! It’s an easy discussion this week. Tonight is the last of the colder nights for a bit then we’re under SW winds from tomorrow (Tuesday) through at least Friday. Something worth considering is fog. We’ll have a warm-source airmass pushing into the existing colder airmass. By late week, the region should be equalized better so likely less of an issue Thurs-Sat. But during the transition days (Tues-Wed), that’s when I would expect overnight/AM fog to form best. The warmer air moving in will saturate into fog when cooled below its dew point temperature by the existing cold air mass. Not guaranteed but something to consider regarding visibility and travel safety. Saturday should be the last day of the abnormally high temps. Sunday-Monday cooler but not by much. Colder, more seasonably average, temperatures are expected to return for next Tuesday and beyond. I’m tracking some frontal activity in the next Monday-Tuesday period. Hopefully that has minimal impact on Halloween activities but we’re still a bit out from any forecast of confidence. I’ll be monitoring this closely.

Monday (Oct 23) high temperatures should max out near-60 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a dry feel. Winds should continue to subside out of the NW through tonight. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most of NJ. ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions should hang in the low-to-mid 40s.

Tuesday (Oct 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Localized AM fog is possible. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Higher elevations could dip into upper-30s.

Wednesday (Oct 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for some areas. At least near-70. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Localized AM fog is possible. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (Oct 26) high temperatures should at least reach the low-to-mid 70s. I could actually see some spots running at 80. Near-record highs for some areas but likely just short. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds still light out of the SW. Localized AM fog is possible. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Oct 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s again. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from, 55-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates the anonymously mild temperatures lasting through Saturday. Highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, lots of sun. Sunday looks cooler but not by much. A little cloudier though. We should then transition back to a more normal setup for next week where high temps max in the lower-50s and fall to the upper-30s/lower-40s. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™