Unsettled and Mixed

Discussion: Many NJ locations broke 90, if not are in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies are hazy from the upstream wildfires and that should peak in-intensity tonight (Thursday) into tomorrow (Friday). The same type of linear segment  of downpours/thunderstorms that happened yesterday in NNJ/CNJ (Wednesday) can happen this evening for CNJ into SNJ. Just like yesterday, the linear segment can form and extinguish in less than a 2-hour window as it generally moves N to S. Humidity should then decrease with the N to S advancement of this boundary as a cold front. Storms could feature moderate wind gusts capable of minor damage. Downpours could be heavy and high volume in a short amount of time.

For this weekend, the upper jet will dip S into NJ/Mid-Atlantic US via backside of a positive-tilted trough over SE Canada/New England. This is what will cool us down but increase rain/storm potential, especially for most hours of Saturday. Sunday then looks like the clear-out relief day with conditions improving after an unsettled start. A cold front will push through and take overnight lows down into the 50s for many Sunday night into Monday.

We are approaching the more active part of hurricane season. So far this year there’s been a lot of Saharan dust flowing across the Atlantic Ocean via easterly winds. Wind shear profiles have been uncooperative for tropical development and this is typical during a strong El Nino. Therefore, it has been quiet in the Atlantic hurricane basin but I’m sure it will wake up soon, especially once into August.

Weekend Outlook in English

Friday (July 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. A few spots away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ could break just over 90. Skies should be mostly sunny but still some wildfire haze around which should improve by Friday night. There should be noticeably less humidity. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 60-75 NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Can’t rule out an isolated shower or two into Saturday morning.

Saturday (July 18) high temperatures should reach the 80-85 range for most NJ locations with humidity back. Skies should be cloudy with periods of rain and thunderstorms likely. A steady downpour all day? Not likely. More like on-and-off downpours at any time with thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and flash-flooding. Winds in general should be light-to-breezy out of the S (obviously stronger winds under/near a thunderstorm). Overnight lows should fall to the 70-75 range with more showers and thunderstorms possible into early Sunday morning.

Sunday (July 19) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should eventually improve however a few shower and thunderstorms could still be around. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Eventually the cold front will push through and overnight lows should range from mid-50s to upper-60s with lower humidity.

An early look at next week (July 20-24) indicates seasonably average conditions. Highs in the low-to-mid 80s and lows in the 60-65 range. Tuesday and Wednesday look a little rainy/stormy but Monday, Thursday and Friday look good and that should extend into next weekend. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC