Unsettled and Muggy

Discussion: For most of this week, the upper-jet should stay to the N of NJ leaving us in a swampy humid air mass under building heights (ridge). Tonight (Monday night) into tomorrow (Tuesday) is the only exception when a weak cold front could push through and dry out conditions (less humidity – not so much colder). I am confident that the cold front makes it into NWNJ, also fairly confident it reaches into CNJ/I-95 area. What I am not confident about is whether the cold front will push all the way through SENJ/ECNJ. If it hangs up a bit then said areas could stay swampy. We’ll see how far the dew drops make it overnight tonight. But for many, tonight-tomorrow should see relief from humidity and feature less chances for rain and rumbles. Come Wednesday, we’re likely back to elevated humidity and the storm chances that accompany such. Those conditions should stay around into the weekend. Not seeing washouts Wed-Sun but definitely the chance for isolated activity that moves in and out in less than 15 minutes. If you get hit, it would be like winning a small lottery while most areas miss. Best I can do from this range.

Forecast

Monday (Aug 3) high temperatures should max out somewhere in the upper-70s/lower-80s for most NJ locations. A very humid day with showers and thunderstorms pushing through for morning/afternoon hours then improvement into the evening/overnight. Winds should remain light out of the SW until the front is through then become more NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s in NNJ elevations to upper-60s along the SNJ coasts. There will be some relief from humidity starting with NWNJ and some of CNJ but not sure the relief makes it all the way to SENJ.

Tuesday (Aug 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a less humid feel. Only a chance for isolated showers and rumbles but most should miss out. Probably the nicest day of the Monday-Friday stretch this week. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE (breeziest along the ocean-facing beaches). Overnight lows should range from 60-70 as humidity trickles back in.  

Wednesday (Aug 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s again for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun and noticeably increased humidity. Showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall to the 65-75 range with isolated shower/storm chances persisting into Thursday morning.

Thursday (Aug 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. 90 or a few degrees over is possible closer to the I-95/NJTP corridor through interior CNJ/SNJ (the typical hotter spot of NJ on any given day). Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Cannot rule out isolated showers and thunderstorms, especially during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-60s in NNJ elevations to low-to-mid 70s for the rest of NJ. A swampy night!

Friday (Aug 7) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with clouds and sun with a humid feel. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially for afternoon-evening hours, but all day is on the hook. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should stay just above 70 likely statewide. Another swampy night.

An early look at the weekend (Aug 8-9) indicates more of the same… highs into the mid-to-upper 80s, a humid feel, and isolated showers and thunderstorms possible later in the day. Morning hours into early afternoon hours likely ok. Late-afternoon into evening is best chance for anything to pop. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC