Unsettled Conditions (April 27-May 1)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 26, 2020 14:16

Unsettled Conditions (April 27-May 1)

Discussion: There will be no major synoptic storms this week despite the active and meridional look to the upper-level jet and 500mb height anomalies. At the surface we currently (Sunday) have a slow moving and weak low pressure system tracking overhead towards the ocean. This should keep Sunday and most of Monday cloudy and wet. After a small of decent conditions Tuesday, another system should move in from the W. Wednesday should be the warm front day, Thursday the cold front day and Friday the occluded low/upper-level disturbance day. That should mean mostly cloudy, milder with a few passing showers for Wednesday. Thursday should see a period of downpours along the cold front but not a total washout. You might see a sunny and mild, but breezy, break ahead of the frontal rain with a great feeling of instability. The frontal precip could feature thunderstorms. We’ll have to assess their strength as we closer approach. Friday should feature isolated showers with a cooler NW flow aloft. We then get somewhat of a break for the weekend with milder temperatures and only isolated run-of-mill spring showers. Most of the weekend looks nice.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecasts are statewide for New Jersey.

Monday (April 27) high temperatures should reach near-50. Skies should be mostly cloudy with passing showers around. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to lower-40s.

Tuesday (April 28) high temperatures should reach near-60. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (April 29) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to near-60 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with periods of isolated/scattered rain possible. Winds should be breezy out of the E/SE, perhaps gusty at times along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts (minor coastal flooding possible). Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (April 30) high temperatures should reach near-60. Interior CNJ/SNJ might reach higher into the 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain, possibly thunderstorms, likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (May 1) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a few isolated rain showers around. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates improvement. Highs in the 60s, maybe getting near-70. Lows only bottoming out near-50. Even though a few run-of-mill isolated spring showers might be around, most of the weekend looks pretty good. Let’s revisit later in the week. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr April 26, 2020 14:16