Unsettled Conditions (Aug 31-Sept 4)

Discussion: Upper-level flow will be heavily influenced by a SE US ridge between Bermuda and the mainland. The N jet should remain zonal but press against the SE US ridge’s N anti-cyclonic flow. The pattern doesn’t hint at becoming meridional until just outside the forecast comfort zone after this weekend. Until then this should produce a warm, but not hot, unsettled period. Unsettled meaning more clouds than sun and a better chance for rain/thunderstorms each day. Most precipitation will be from the convergence-related lifting from those two key upper-level players. We’ll have a tropical development attempt offshore early this week which could roughen the surf up. No other effects are anticipated as it will steam away further out to sea. A solid cold front is expected for Thursday night into Friday however which should produce a dry and sunny weekend in theory if expectations hold. No other tropical or major synoptic threats are on the near horizon. Casually monitoring a wave coming off W Africa but too soon for any predictions on that.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Aug 31) evening should see mostly cloudy skies with periods of rain possible overnight. Winds should be light out of the E. Lows should bottom out in the 60s.  

Tuesday (Sept 1) high temperatures should range from lower-70s to near-80 from elevations to sea. Skies should be mixed with a few showers and thunderstorms around. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall to near-70.

Wednesday (Sept 2) high temperatures should reach near-80. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a humid feel. A few thunderstorms could touch off. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Surf conditions could be elevated. Overnight lows should fall to near-70.

Thursday (Sept 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the SW. Surf conditions could remain elevated. Overnight lows should fall to near-70.

Friday (Sept 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. A small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms exists. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to upper-60s from elevations to sea.

An early look at the weekend indicates dry and sunny conditions with lower humidity. Let’s revisit in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™