Unsettled Conditions Continue

Discussion: The upper jet should be over of just N of NJ this week. That jives with the expected average profile of geopotential height anomalies of the near-zonal flow pattern. There will be an upper-low/trough lifting into SE Canada Tues-Wed but NJ should stay to the SE of such…maybe NWNJ elevations get grazed with some cooler temps while the rest of NJ reaches much warmer temperatures than as of late. Temperatures then build even warmer and more humid Wednesday through Friday with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Wednesday of this week looks like the best day (most sun and least humidity). The weekend then takes a step back to cooler temperatures and more expected rain. Personal opinion: It’s great that the drought has subsided but the weekend rain pattern is getting old.

Forecast

Monday (June 9) high temperatures are maxing in the 60-75 range NNJ to SNJ with SWNJ the warmest location. Skies are mixed with mostly clouds, a few sunny breaks, and occasional drizzle. We should remain in a rain break for much of this evening but more isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible later overnight. Winds should remain light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-65 range for most NJ locations.

Tuesday (June 10) high temperatures should reach well into the 70s for most NJ locations…a warmer day. Skies should be mixed with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Humidity stays up. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-65 range NNJ to SNJ as conditions improve into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday (June 11) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with less humidity. Some higher-altitude haze could be present from the wildfires upstream. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should again range from 55-65 NNJ to SNJ with clear conditions.

Thursday (June 12) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. Coasties closer to 80. Skies, in general, should be mostly sunny and hazy with some humidity back. Showers and thunderstorms could pop for afternoon/evening hours. Winds should remain light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should stay above 60 for most NJ locations as humidity lingers.

Friday (June 13) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny and humid with more pop-up showers and thunderstorms possible for afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-65 range with showers and thunderstorms possible into Saturday morning.

An early look at the weekend (June 14-15) indicates highs near-70 with more unsettled conditions. Sunday looks like the better day regarding outdoor activities. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC