Unsettled Conditions Expected (March 1-3)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 28, 2019 20:18

Unsettled Conditions Expected (March 1-3)

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Three separate systems should move through the region between late tonight and Monday. The first two are weak. The first could time poorly with Friday AM rush hour. The third may be something to watch. Let’s break down each one:

Friday Morning: A weak wave of energy is running into a back-peddling New England high. This should produce a light snow event along the general PA/MD border extended eastward through NJ. You can see it now on radar moving through Ohio and West Virginia towards PA/MD. This event should occur before significant marine influence is enhanced by the approaching second system. The high should keep the lower-levels cold. Therefore this first system is likely snow for all of NJ. SWNJ would be favored for the highest snow accumulations having greatest proximity to the best banding that’s approaching. NNJ (N of I-178) would be favored for the least amount of snow accumulations due to dry air influence. SENJ would likely see less than SWNJ because of the surface temperature profile and proximity to the ocean during E flow. Counties like Burlington and Ocean could go either way (only a coating or plowable light accumulations like SWNJ). There’s not much moisture to work with and the flow is progressive. Therefore I doubt anyone would crack the 4 inch mark. But I could widespread 2-4  inch outcomes across CNJ/SNJ if the best precip bands hold to the coast. This should start after midnight tonight and taper off by mid-to-late morning tomorrow (Friday). Therefore the AM rush hour commute could be slow and problematic tomorrow.

Friday Night into Saturday Morning: Temperatures should rise above freezing for most areas SE of the NJTP by Friday afternoon. Areas NW of the NJTP will stay cold enough to support snow accumulation. Another wave of precipitation is expected between Friday evening and the early AM hours of Saturday. During this time areas SE of the NJTP should see all rain but areas NW of such could pick up a few inches of snow especially NWNJ elevations. A coastal low should then develop by late-Friday night or early Saturday morning and pull down some colder air to close out the weekend. It might change some back-end rain over to ending snow Saturday morning.

Sunday Night into Monday Afternoon: This system has my curiosity. It is currently modeled warm for SENJ and snowy for NWNJ with the NJTP/I-95 the battleground. I imagine we’ll see some trending as these first two systems affect the pattern behind them.  If the second weekend system wraps up stronger it could pull the temp profile further S behind it. This will be the last day this is just a strong signal. Serious tracking will begin tomorrow.

In English: Light snow accumulations should fall across CNJ and SNJ (I-78 and S) Friday morning. SWNJ (maybe WCNJ too)should see the highest amounts. We’re talking widespread 1-2 inches of snow S of I-78 with possibly some areas getting into the 2-4 inch category if the stronger live observations hold. Areas N of I-78 should struggle to see more than a coating. This all happens between about 2am and 10am with 3-7am the peak of it. There should then be a break mid-Friday where temperatures warm above freezing for the lower 2/3 of NJ. More precipitation is then possible Friday night into Saturday morning. Rain for lower 2/3 of NJ and possibly a few inches for NWNJ. The first snow map for the larger Sunday night into Monday afternoon system will post tomorrow. The signal is holding. Download the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and/or Android. It’s the easiest way to never miss Weather NJ content. Our premium services go even further above and beyond at the hyperlocal level. Everyone please have a great weekend and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr February 28, 2019 20:18