Unsettled Conditions (March 15-19)

Discussion: High pressure just N of the Great Lakes is flow-teaming with low pressure in the NW Atlantic. Tight isobars between are currently (as of late-Sunday night) producing cold and gusty conditions to end the weekend and start Monday morning. The NWS has a red flag warning issued until 5pm Monday because of the windy conditions occurring during very low humidity. Winds should subside by Monday evening as the high pressure approaches closer and become more overhead of NJ. The positive-axis upper-level trough should then depart from New England and 500mb geopotential heights should build for the rest of the week. It looks very unsettled though. There’s an upper-level low that moves across the US from mid-to-late week that plows right through the higher heights. But then a strong ridge builds for Saturday through the weekend and well into next week. So a clear and cold Monday followed by a few mild periods of precipitation Tuesday-Friday as outlined below. For the most part each day this week gets way too warm for snowfall and definitely too warm for accumulation during daytime hours. Overnight hours however could see a wintry mix at times, especially the colder NNJ elevations. The models are suggesting it but I’m honestly not feeling it. Allow a little extra travel time this week for the rain and that’s about it.

Monday (March 15) high temperatures should reach near-40. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Coupled with low humidity, this presents a fire hazard. That is why the NWS has issued a red flag warning until 5pm Monday, March 15. The fire on Sunday in N Ocean County was an example of how out of control it can get in a short amount of time. Winds should subside by late afternoon/early evening and overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from elevations to coasts.

Tuesday (March 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain possible, especially for SNJ. Can’t rule out a conversational wintry mix for NNJ, especially elevations, but the surface temps will likely be too warm for accumilations. Winds should be light out of the S/SE (breezier along the SENJ coast). Overnight lows should fall into the 30s.

Wednesday (March 17) high temperatures should reach near-50. Skies should remain mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s.

Thursday (March 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely developing by evening. Can’t rule out a wintry mix for NNJ (per model guidance) but I’m just not feeling accumulations. Winds should be breezy out of the E (perhaps gusty for immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions). Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to lower-40s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (March 19) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more periods of rain likely to start. Improvement is expected once the back edge of the low moves out. Once more, conversational wintry mix is possible as precipitation ends but no accumulations. Winds should be breezy out of the NE (gusty closer to the ocean). Overnight lows should range from near-20 to mid-30s from elevations to coasts with a wintry mix possible.

An early look at the weekend indicates much improvement if we can get through the unsettled Monday-Friday. Clear skies with most of the state into the 50s during the day, maybe lower-60s for typical warmer locations (away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ)

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™