Unsettled Conditions (Oct 28-Nov 1)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 27, 2019 21:31

Unsettled Conditions (Oct 28-Nov 1)

Discussion: Upper-level ridging should dominate the pattern through Wednesday possibly even some of Thursday. At the surface this means high pressure but not necessarily clear. We might see some raw misty onshore flow conditions in the Tuesday-Wednesday period. Monday-Thursday looks mild however. Highs should have no trouble reaching into the 60s on these days and possibly even 70 on Wednesday. A strong cyclone will then hit the Great Lakes areas pretty hard. I’m seeing some impressive dynamics aloft (closed-off upper-level low with a lot of vorticity). This system could actually produce a snow storm for the W Great Lakes. For New Jersey we will likely see a strong warm sector Wednesday-Thursday (mild S winds), periods of moderate-to-heavy rainfall Thursday (Halloween) into Friday morning, and then a cold and dry weekend.

Monday (Oct 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Oct 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with some onshore drizzle possible. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Oct 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance to break 70. Skies should be mixed during the day and cloudy with rain possible overnight. Winds should be light out of the W to start but transition to breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Oct 31) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Lighter periods of rain are likely during morning and afternoon hours. Heavier rain is likely for evening and overnight hours. Winds should be breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Nov 1) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should start cloudy with AM rain ending by noon. Skies should improve through afternoon hours and clear by overnight. Winds should be breezy out of the W as a cold front moves through. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder and clearer conditions starting with Friday’s cold front. Highs temperatures might struggle to escape the 40s for NNJ elevations. The rest of the state just into the 50s. Overnight lows could fall below-freezing for NNJ elevations and areas like the SNJ Pine Barrens. Otherwise even the warmer coastal SNJ locations should dip into the 30s. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Otherwise everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr October 27, 2019 21:31