Unsettled Start. Beautiful Finish (July 16-20)

Discussion: High pressure over the general Bermuda area is slowing departing to the E. The anticyclonic/southerly return flow from such is driving our current warm and humid conditions. Another area of high pressure should track from the Great Lakes towards NNJ/S New England between now and this weekend. This should first push a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms through most of NJ for Tuesday PM hours. Severe criteria is very much on the table which I’ll talk about in a separate article this evening. Once the cold front is through we should have miraculous weather from Tuesday night through most of Friday. The new area of high pressure will have control over the E US via dry sinking air. This weekend looks a little dicey once the new area of high pressure moves far enough E to generate new southerly return flow. A low pressure system might team up and bring widespread rainfall to the region Saturday and Sunday. I’m not locked into a washout weekend just yet. I want to give it a few more days. But that’s how it looks right now.

Monday (July 16) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could reach the low-to-mid 90s while coastal regions hang in the 80s. Skies should be partly sunny with a small chance of PM showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fail to dip below 70 statewide.

Tuesday (July 17) high temperatures should reach near-90 again for many locations. Skies should start partly-to-mostly sunny but a cold front is expected to push a period of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms through the area ~late afternoon/early evening. I will likely have an additional and more specific storm article out this evening about such. Winds should be breezy out of the S/SW ahead of the front and light-to-breezy out of the NW after the front. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (July 18) high temperatures should just break into the 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from 50 to 60 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (July 19) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most (away from the ocean) and near-80 for coastal regions. Some far-east barrier island locations might hang in the upper-70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a continued pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (July 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most (away from the ocean) and low-to-mid 80s for coastal regions. Skies should be mostly partly sunny with a hair more humidity than Wednesday and Thursday. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from 60 to 70 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates unsettled conditions. It is too soon to say complete washout but likely at least periods of scattered-to-widespread rainfall Saturday and Sunday. Let’s revisit this in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™