Unsettled Start. Improved Finish

Discussion: By the end of this weekend/start of next week, the upper jet is going to kink into more of a meridional look, with ridging in the W US and a trough dipping over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. This pattern should dominate the first half of next week before relaxing back to a zonal look for the second half of the week. This suggests a closed-off upper low over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US from about Saturday night through Wednesday morning. Then just near-average geopotential height anomalies after Wednesday into next weekend. The combination of the developing upper low and surface low tracking through the Great Lakes/SE Canada creates a few rainy/stormy periods for NJ. The first is late Friday night through Saturday morning, ending by noon or just after Saturday. That gives us a break Saturday afternoon-evening and then isolated unsettledness for Sunday. A front should push the humid air mass out to sea for at least Sunday night through Tuesday. We should see dew points dropping into the 50s/60s rather than 70s. It comes right back Wednesday-forward though along with a more unsettled pattern. The tropics remain quiet for E US coast interests. Not surprised in a strong El Nino (typically suppresses tropical activity for us). There are a few waves expected to depart the Cape Verde Islands towards the Caribbean, but I expect them to continue shearing out or staying out to sea.

Forecast

Friday (Aug 21) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s for most NJ locations. A few of the traditionally warmer spots near I-95/NJTP could reach into the lower-80s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. A small break in the humidity for at least the first half of Friday with humidity building back in overnight. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 60-70 range NNJ to SNJ with clouds and possibly a few isolated showers/boomers moving in by Saturday morning.

Saturday (Aug 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with period of rain and thunderstorms possible. NNJ should see less rain/storms than the rest of the state. For CNJ/SNJ, most rainy/stormy hours look to happen in the morning with some improvement by afternoon-forward. Downpours could be heavy. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall to the 65-70 range with unsettled conditions (showers and thunderstorms) possible into Sunday morning.

Sunday (Aug 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. While Sunday looks like the better day of the weekend outdoors, we still have to allow for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to pop-up randomly at any time. Otherwise, skies should stay mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-65 range NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (Aug 24-28) indicates highs generally in the 78-84 range (NNJ to SNJ) with lows in the 55-70 range (NNJ to SNJ). The entire week looks slightly unsettled meaning random pop-ups possible any day anytime. But the overall feel of the week looks decent otherwise. Humidity should break from Sunday night through Tuesday—returning Wednesday. Should feel great after the prolonged humidity we’ve gotten used to. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC