Unsettled Start then Heat Builds

Discussion: A disturbance is rotating through, mainly drive by a low tracking through NY State and some lowering pressure just offshore of NJ. This provided enough lift for overnight thunderstorms and will continue to do so until Tuesday. By Tuesday night the disturbance and its trailing upper-level aftermath should be well out of here. While this provided some much needed rainfall, it won’t really impact the developing drought. And it won’t provide relief from humidity and heat as the Bermuda high return flow will quickly reestablish SW flow for all of NJ Wednesday into the weekend. That means warm/hot and muggy conditions straight into the weekend. Highs will top out this week in the lower 90s but the humidity should make it seem closer to 100. The next synoptic rain signal is Sunday into Monday from a passing coastal disturbance. Still yet TBD if this tracks close enough to bring more rain to NJ. Otherwise the only rain we’ll see is from the current disturbance and any areas directly hit by isolated-scattered thunderstorms. The tropics are waking up, especially the Cape Verde region off W Africa. Long term guidance suggests the Bermuda high sliding eastward into more of an Azores high for next week. This would allow a path for any of the Verde-origin storms to track up the east coast starting Labor Day Weekend or just after. This is something I’ll be tracking however there are no immediate tropical threats to NJ.  

Monday (Aug 22) high temperatures should max out near-80 with an unsettled look and feel. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms around. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most areas.

Tuesday (Aug 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds but a few showers and thunderstorms still around. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (Aug 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s, maybe 90 for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70- from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (Aug 25) high temperatures should reach near or just above 90 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with a humid feel. Can’t rule out isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70- from elevations to coasts.

Friday (Aug 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Can’t rule out an isolated pop-up. Winds should be light out of the SW, perhaps breezier along the coast. Overnight lows should range from 60-70- from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates more of the same. Highs in the 80s, humid, and unsettled despite plenty of sun. Let’s check back in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™