Unsettled Week Expected (Feb 29-Mar 4)

The week should start with mild temperatures. A series of frontal passages should chill the region down by the weekend. Rain is possible along either front and the Friday-Saturday snow possibility depends on how much the polar vortex suppresses a low pressure system passing through the SE US. Let’s break it down:

Monday (Feb 29) high temperatures should reach about 60 statewide. Skies should be partly sunny. Rain showers are possible, especially during AM hours but most of the day should eventually be okay. This will be the first weaker frontal passage. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 30s for NNJ elevations to 40s for the lower 2/3 of New Jersey.

Tuesday (Mar 1) high temperatures should reach well into the 50s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny during the day. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-30s/lower-40s as showers are possible into Wednesday.

Wednesday (Mar 2) high temperatures should reach about 50 statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain likely. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s and 30s with the second cold front through.

Thursday (Mar 3) high temperatures should struggle to reach 40. Skies should me partly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the teens for NNJ elevations and 20s for the lower 2/3 of New Jersey.

Friday (Mar 4) high temperatures should again struggle to break 40 statewide. All eyes will be on an approaching low pressure system passing through the SE US. If enough of the northern precipitation shield from the low reaches into NJ from the S (Friday into Saturday) then it’s game on for snowfall. If the system is too suppressed by the polar vortex’s SE Canadian position, then it will miss to the S of NJ. I need to see more model guidance early this week to make Friday-Saturday’s forecast for snow or no snow. Let’s give it until Tuesday evening when the energy will be much better sampled.

The rest of the weekend could remain chilly but dry and then gradually moderate into early next week. I’m then seeing some serious warming signals for March 9-forward. Have a great week and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™