Unsettled Week

Jonathan Carr
By February 21, 2022 23:23

Unsettled Week

Discussion: The upper level jet will stay to the N of NJ for most of this week with the Mid-Atlantic US under positive 500mb height anomalies. That’s a recipe for above-average temperatures and we’ll stay mild through Wednesday. I hope everyone had a great President’s Day today. Tomorrow will be similar in temperature but rain, possibly some thunderstorms, should push through during PM hours due to a low tracking well to the NW/N of NJ. Wednesday looks like the warmest day. Some rain might still be around for AM hours but afternoon temperatures could honestly threaten 70 for some interior CNJ/SNJ locations. Both Tuesday and Wednesday should be breezy by the look of lower-level isobars.

A cold front will then push down from the NW and chill out the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Most locations will be taken down to the 20s/30s. And that brings us to the storm signal I’ve been monitoring since last week…a low that should track either through extreme SNJ or just S of.

Last week, the ~Friday system was advertised as a snow to ice to rain situation. Over the weekend, it trended a little colder with NNJ staying all snow and CNJ/SNJ going over to ice/rain. Now it’s back to how it was last week with less snow up-front (for NNJ only), ice mainly for NNJ/CNJ, and mostly rain for SNJ. Even though there isn’t much snow expected (even for NNJ), the ice (in the form of sleet or freezing rain) could present hazardous travel conditions late Thursday night into Friday.

After the Thursday night-Friday system, the weekend looks colder but not as cold Monday-Tuesday with an expected trough to dip over the E US. This should close February out and start March with below-average temperatures. Outside of a ~March 5-7 transient warmup, the future looks cold as far as I can comfortably see with several wintry storm signals to get through before spring starts to settle in.

In English: Expect Tuesday and Wednesday to remain mild with rain and possibly thunderstorms Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM. Wednesday night into Thursday looks cold ahead of a Thursday PM-Friday system (could start late Thursday night and wrap-up Friday afternoon). This system will likely be all rain for SNJ. CNJ looks like brief snow, quickly over to ice, and ending as rain. NNJ should see the most up-front snow before going over to at least some ice. I’ll have more details tomorrow and a more locked-down forecast Wednesday. Once that system clears out, the weekend looks cold and then Monday-Tuesday looks very cold to start March. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By February 21, 2022 23:23