Volatile Temperature Swings

Discussion: The upper jet will remain well N of NJ through at least Wednesday morning. This will allow upper level heights to continue ridging for the E US, especially the Mid-Atlantic US/NJ. At the surface this means well above average temperatures (in the 90s, possibly 100), an introduction of summer-like humidity, but mostly under blue skies. On Wednesday the upper jet will dip across NJ and this will push a stormfront through of rain downpours, gusty winds and lightning. The best dynamics will be to the W of NJ and therefore more of a widespread severe situation out that way. NJ, however, will be under less impressive dynamics and as we all know, the marine layer will help weaken the stormfront as it approaches the coast. That doesn’t mean WNJ and central NJ (thinking N to S) can’t get nailed though. For the sake of safety, let’s allow isolated cases of severe criteria Wednesday for all of NJ between afternoon and evening hours. On the other side of that will be much cooler temps starting Thursday and lasting through Sunday. Thursday might still hit 70 and feel extremely pleasant after the heat. But Friday, Saturday and Sunday should top out in the 60s with rain likely, mainly Saturday and Sunday. Monday looks to start a period of improvement that should last for the rest of May. A rather zonal pattern should keep us in “highs in the 70s” territory until the next heatwave occurs (likely the tail end of May/early June).

Forecast

Monday (May 18) high temperatures pushed into the low-to-mid 90s for most of NJ away from the ocean. Areas closer to the ocean maxed in the 80s and right along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coast, the 70s. Skies will remain mostly clear. Winds will remain light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 65-70 range.

Tuesday (May 19) high temperatures should push well into the 90s away from the ocean with 100 not off the table. Even the ECNJ/SENJ coast should push into the lower-80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a more humid feel. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should again fall to the 65-70 range with some CNJ/SNJ locations staying above 70.

Wednesday (May 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most NJ locations away from the ocean…near-80 for the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coast. Skies should start mostly sunny and a little hazy but eventually a stormfront should push through during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW ahead of the front and then light-to-breezy out of the N/NW behind the front later Wednesday night. Expect downpours, gusty winds and lightning with isolated cases of severe criteria (wind and/or hail) possible. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 NNJ to SNJ with a few remnant showers and thunderstorms possible into Thursday morning.

Thursday (May 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Coastal areas might hover in the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a noticeable improvement in humidity and feel. Winds should be light out of the N/NW for most areas with a little more of an E wind along immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-52 range NNJ-SNJ.

Friday (May 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds…a little cloudier to finish up the evening. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall to near-50 with some light rain possible, favoring SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (May 23-24) indicates Saturday and Sunday both remaining cooler (highs in the 60s) with periods of rain expected. From this range, Saturday looks rainier than Sunday but both days look rainy in general. Not all day washouts but on-and-off rain under mostly cloudy skies with the cooler temps. Likely a bummer for outdoor interests. Monday however, is back to highs in the 70s for another prolonged stretch. Only isolated showers possible Monday but there will at least be some returning sun. Let’s take another look in a few days. I will try to get the full detailed MDW outlook out either Wednesday or Thursday. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC