Warm and Unsettled (July 29-Aug 2)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 29, 2019 13:55

Warm and Unsettled (July 29-Aug 2)

Discussion: The most important pattern recognition I see is the persistent Bermuda high and the high that should establish ~centered near New Mexico. These highs are spaced adequately to allow upper-level cyclonic flow between them (cyclonic between two anti-cyclonic air masses) over the general E US. This signifies that below-average 500mb geopotential heights are likely for the foreseeable near-future (to close July and start the first week or so of August). What does this mean? For one we will likely not deal with record heat during this period (like we just saw July 19-21). We’ll still get summery (highs in the upper-80s/lower-90s) but not highs breaking 100 with heat indices > 110. This comes at the cost of unsettled weather traditionally associated with lower-heights meaning rain and thunderstorms. So in a nutshell for the next week or so…warm and unsettled. It’s just about time to start paying attention to the tropics. I will not be providing a tropical season outlook that tells you how many hurricanes there will be and how many will strike land/NJ/etc. What I will say though is Sahara Desert dust is low, Caribbean shear is low, E US water temperatures are high and there’s a lot of potential tropical cyclone energy in the Atlantic. With that said it should be a busier year. I’ll take sharp focus on any NJ threat in the mid-to-long range forecasting period. Until then speculation is wasted emotion IMO.

Monday (July 29) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ should push just over 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Super-isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas.

Tuesday (July 30) high temperatures should reach into the 90s for most areas. Coastal regions could hang in the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be hazy, hot and humid with a general mix of sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas.

Wednesday (July 31) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Skies should be partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms possible. Humidity should still be present but slightly lower than Mon-Tues. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Aug 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ have the best shot at reaching into the low-90s. Skies should be partly sunny with a few showers and thunderstorms around. Winds should be light out of the N/NW for northern/interior areas of NJ. SNJ/SENJ could see more of a W/SW wind direction. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Aug 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. NNJ should have a drier feel (humidity and precipitation-wise) than SNJ. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates lingering humidity with highs generally in the 80s. Skies look partly-to-mostly sunny for the majority of the weekend but unsettled…meaning isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during afternoon/early-evening hours. Typical summer stuff. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 29, 2019 13:55