Warm and Unsettled (June 19-21)

Discussion: The upper-level low that broke off of last week’s trough has been churning over the interior S Mid-Atlantic/SE US for most of this week as expected. The ridge over SE Canada and NE US, however, has been obliterating the ULL and it is now close to fizzling out completely. It will likely take through this weekend to completely fizzle out. It’s last breath will be in the form of a surface low spinning up in the ULL’s area of positive vorticity advection. This surface low should track from Florida up the coast but well out to sea of the US east coast. As the fizzling ULL moves over NJ and out by Sunday, it will keep our region warm and unsettled with persistent S flow. That means highs into the 80s (away from the ocean) with noticeable humidity and isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms. Not any day looks like a washout though. You should see plenty of sun and blue sky this weekend. Just keep an eye to the sky in case something pops up especially in the favorable afternoon-evening period. Given the tropical-like air mass we will be in, showers could escalate to heavy localized downpours. We will then see another trough park in the N Central US next week but struggle to advance over the E US. This will leave NJ under SW flow (for most levels) on the back side of the NE US/SE Canadian ridge which should pump even more surface warmth and humidity into the region as a sort of stalled warm sector. Therefore next week looks very summery-feeling with more unsettled conditions. Until we get an area of high pressure favorably parked behind a cold front, we can’t take the chance for a shower or thunderstorm off the table for any given day. And I don’t see any significant cold front relief until the ~July 4^th period.  

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.)

Friday (June 19) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas. Coastal regions might hang closer to the mid-70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a few passing showers and thunderstorms around. Watch out for some morning fog which should set the stage for a humid day. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s.

Saturday (June 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas with coastal regions hanging in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should remain mixed with sun, clouds, a humid feel and possibly a passing shower or thunderstorm around. Winds should remain light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s.

Sunday (June 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas with coastal regions again hanging in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should remain mixed with sun, clouds, a humid feel and possibly a passing shower or thunderstorm around. Winds should remain light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s.

An early look at next week indicates warmer conditions with temps away from the ocean climbing into the 90s. Coastal regions likely hanging in the upper-70s/lower-80s via sea breeze front mechanism. The unsettled pattern should continue meaning lots of sun and humidity but chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially during afternoon/evening hours. Overnight lows should struggle to drop below 65 statewide and in most cases below 70.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™