Warm and Unsettled (May 28-31)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 27, 2019 17:14

Warm and Unsettled (May 28-31)

Discussion: The upper jet should basically fap NNJ this week from New England latitude. This will change Friday when brought S over NJ via cold frontal passage. In the meantime this will produce ridging for the SE US but not necessarily for the Mid-Atlantic US. We’ll have N stream convergence near the Great Lakes which should keep the Mid-Atlantic destabilized under strong shear-enabling upper-level W flow. The surface will get warm this week which will further destabilize the region for isolated pop-ups. The best thunderstorm dynamics (shear + lifting dynamics) should occur Tuesday PM as a weakening low drags a front through very unstable air. The surface should maximize in temperature Thursday which means isolated pop-ups are not off the table. I’d say such isolated pop-ups are possible on any day of this week. We don’t have a high overhead with dry air mass. We have a warm air mass but with instability and uncertainty. The thunderstorm events that occur will be better-called in the mesoscale forecasting range. From this distance I only feel comfortable stating the widespread general threat of downpours and thunderstorms. Once Friday afternoon rolls around we should have a weak area of high pressure moving in from the W/NW. That should result in refreshing air out of the NW to set up a great weekend start.

Tuesday (May 28) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most. WCNJ and SWNJ have the best shot at breaking 80 while the immediate ECN/SENJ coastal regions hang in the upper-60s/near-70. Skies should be partly sunny with rain and thunderstorms around especially during PM hours. Thunderstorms could be severe with NWNJ/WCNJ/SWNJ favored for such. Marine interaction could weaken thunderstorms for all of ENJ but still keep your guard up! You can never rule out hail or a tornado with this kind of setup. The most reasonable expectation however are for strong-to-severe thunderstorms with mostly straight-line winds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (May 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most maybe breaking 80 in usual warmer WCNJ/SWNJ spots. Skies should be partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms around. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (May 30) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most with 90+ possible away from immediate coastal areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with showers and thunderstorms around especially during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (May 31) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most. SNJ in general (S of I-195) could get closer to or break 80. Skies should start cloudy with remnant showers clearing out but transition to clear skies through late-morning and afternoon. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows could fall into the 40s for NWNJ elevations but hang near-60 along immediate coastal areas. All areas between would fall into the 50s.

An early look at the weekend indicates a dry and pleasant start (Friday PM into Saturday with a slightly unsettled look to Saturday PM into Sunday. The upward trend in sustained warmth and humidity should continue into the following week. Let’s take a closer look in a few days for the full weekend outlook. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr May 27, 2019 17:14