Warm, Humid and Slightly Unsettled (June 26-28)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr June 26, 2020 12:29

Warm, Humid and Slightly Unsettled (June 26-28)

Discussion: The upper-jet looks scrambled a bit (meridionally) over our region this weekend and next week. A few week and progressive troughs are continuing to break off the front of the overall ridge jet dip to our N and NE. Otherwise we would be under a very hot ridge. These positive-axis anomalies are enough to keep 500mb height anomalies negative throughout this time frame. Only ~July 4th and beyond does above-average height anomalies resume over NJ. What does this mean at the surface? It means that record heat wave conditions are held off but we still remain warm and humid (90 and humid not 105 and humid). It means that skies will not be clear and blue but rather checkered with building summer cumulus, some of them forming into cumulonimbus capable of showers and thunderstorms. Basically…slightly unsettled given the lower heights and upper-level lifting associated with weak upper-level low pressure. I expect most of this weekend to be simply warm and humid for New Jersey. Most of the days should feature sun and clouds. However, you cannot rule out isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms. So warm, humid and slightly unsettled is my best take on this weekend in NJ.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (June 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with elevated, but not horrendous, humidity. Can’t rule out an extremely isolated pop-up. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (June 27) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ (away from the ocean) would have the best chance to flirt with breaking 90. Showers and thunderstorms are possible during both morning and afternoon-evening hours however it looks far from a washout. Most action should be isolated to scattered at best with plenty of dry sun and clouds between. NNJ seems to have a better shot at showers/t-storms than SNJ in general and especially during PM hours. For whatever cells do form severe criteria is possible. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70 aside from NNJ elevations dipping to the mid-60s.

Sunday (June 28) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ (away from the ocean) have a good shot at breaking into the lower-90s. Skies should be mixed with sun, clouds and isolated showers and thunderstorms. Again, like Saturday, mostly sun and clouds, but pop-ups around. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates warm and humid conditions spilling over into Monday. Tuesday-Thursday might feature a small relief period before everything warms up again for the holiday weekend. Let’s take a closer look on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr June 26, 2020 12:29