Warm Humid Week Ends Cool (Oct 8-12)

Discussion: Upper-level ridging should be strong through Thursday morning which should reinforce the warm and muggy feel this week at the surface via S flow. The ridge should then break down and move out to sea as lower height anomalies fill the void from Friday-forward. Between this transition (Thursday PM into early Friday AM), remnants of what will soon become Michael should be steered through the Mid-Atlantic US from SW to NE. There is still uncertainty for the exact track (over or to the SE of NJ). This would dictate the heaviest axis of precipitation and highest winds (NW of NJ, through NJ, SE of NJ, etc). Therefore for now all of NJ should expect possible impacts from a synoptic rainstorm in that Thursday PM-early Friday AM period. The hazards of concern would be flash flooding, gusty winds and embedded thunderstorms capable of reaching severe criteria. I will likely have a few articles out this week about such.

Monday (Oct 8) high temperatures should range from upper-60s to upper-70s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a humid feel. A bit less humid for NNJ than SNJ. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Tuesday (Oct 9) high temperatures should reach well into the 70s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could break 80. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 60s for most as humidity persists.

Wednesday (Oct 10) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most with interior CNJ/SNJ likely reaching the mid-80s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy and humid. Winds should remain light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70 for all but the NNJ elevations.

Thursday (Oct 11) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with heavy rain, increased winds and embedded thunderstorms possible especially PM into overnight hours. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s for most.

Friday (Oct 12) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most. Skies could start cloudy and rainy during early AM hours but clear to sunny breaks by late-morning/afternoon. This should be a noticeably cooler and drier “after the rainstorm” fall feel. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most with immediate coastal areas hanging near-50 or in the low-50s.

An early look at the weekend indicates no major concerns or issues. For those heavily tracking Michael, those impacts would be Thursday PM-Friday AM. A few friendly fallish showers possible inside a largely cooler and drier air mass. Highs in the 60s. Lows in the 40s type stuff. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™