Warm Rain to Cold Improvement

Jonathan Carr
By January 9, 2026 15:19

Warm Rain to Cold Improvement

Discussion: Back to article mode to address the approaching rain and longer-range wintry signals.

Right now (Friday 1/9 3:00pm) most of NJ is cloud with temperatures ranging from about 45-55 NNJ to SNJ. It feels a lot warmer than that after the generally colder 5-6 week period we had from Thanksgiving Weekend through this past weekend. Funny how that first fall day when temps drops to the 45-55 range, everyone is running for the coats, hats, glove, etc. Heck I just cracked my windows because it feels so nice! Today does seem like the warmest day of this week’s milder stretch. Tomorrow still up there but not as mild as today. We do have some rain moving in this evening/tonight but not the main batch. Total liquid actually looks weak and then a lull is expected from midnight-ish tonight until later tomorrow (Saturday) morning. The main batch of rain should occur between about 9am and 9pm tomorrow (Saturday). Total rain from this evening through Saturday night seems like all of NJ is good for at least a quarter inch. A decent amount of NJ should get closer to the half-inch mark with a strip somewhere of 1-2 inch rain totals. Right now that looks like SNJ and some of CNJ. Rain should then taper off late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Conditions should improve overnight (Saturday into Sunday) until a cold front moves through mid-to-late morning. Sunday should be one of those days where high temperatures are achieved earlier in the AM due to the timing of a cold front rushing colder air into the region during typical diurnal schedule. So, Sunday high temps between midnight and 9am instead of between noon and 3pm. Once the front is through expect colder temperatures Sunday with maybe a range of 35-45 NNJ to SNJ and stiff W/NW winds. Most of NJ dips below freezing Sunday night into Monday.

Next week is a “hurry up and wait” kind of week. The Sunday morning cold front will take us back to near-average temperatures Mon-Wed but it’s only the first gear of cold. This period will feature what I like to call stale Canadian winter air. It doesn’t have the Arctic teeth to it. A second cold front is then expected Wednesday (Jan 14) night into Thursday (Jan 15) morning and that one should have bite to it. Thursday highs will likely stay below freezing and lows Thursday (Jan 15) night into Friday (Jan 16) morning down into the 10-20 range NNJ to SNJ. Monday through Friday morning looks mostly dry.

The January 15-20 period has been one of interest for a while. We’ve been discussing this in the premium areas for almost a week but the period is now just 6 days away from starting. To recap, a +EPO (trough in the E Pacific near Alaska) formed and gave us this current mild stretch of Jan 6-11. It forced a ridge downstream for much of the US especially the E US where the troposphere could expand and warm fed from milder Pacific air kicked in by the bottom of the trough. The +EPO is going to collapse, to start next week, into a -EPO (ridge in the E Pacific near Alaska) which will in turn force a trough for the E US starting around Jan 15. The trough is expected to remain in place during our Jan 15-20 period of interest. There are multiple waves of energy rounding that trough but the data seems, IMO, to be consolidating that energy into two primary signals, Jan 15-16 and Jan 18-19 but I am not ready to lock into those dates being the specific instances just yet. I’m just leaning that way right now. The overall period of Jan 15-20 is much more interesting as a whole for now. The first 15-16 signal is just starting to show on models but we need through the weekend for models to evolve and hone-in with more of a consensus. Right now, it’s more of a coastal grazer for the E Mid-Atlantic due to a kicker (shortwave) keeping the system further E. Some model runs have already come in with hits the last few days. We might see some wild runs this weekend, we might see some swing and a miss “out to sea” solutions. But by this Monday (Jan 12) we should know whether we can start sounding alarms for a Thursday-Friday (Jan 15-16) snowstorm or not. The next cluster of signal is then Jan 18-19 but we need to focus on the 15-16 signal first.

In English: It’s cloudy now. We’re milder through Sunday morning. A little bit of rain is on the way for this evening, then a break from ~midnight tonight until about 9am Saturday, then moderate (heavy at times) rain likely 9am-9pm Saturday tapering off by early Sunday AM. Cold front Sunday drops temps and clears everything out. Cold but not too cold Mon-Wed then cold cold Thursday-forward. Watching a few periods for potential snowstorm signals, Jan 15-16 and Jan 18-19 but we have time. Pattern still very supportive for snow surface details not ironed out until likely Monday. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By January 9, 2026 15:19

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