Warm Snap Ends

Discussion: We’re currently (Thursday) under the warmer influence of a ridge that will depart the E US by Saturday morning. Areas away from the ocean should dip into the 30s overnight tonight (Thursday night) with coastal areas holding closer to 50. Tomorrow (Friday) will spike mild again like today (Thursday) with some areas eyeing up 70 but most of NJ at least up into the 60s. That then concludes the milder snap as a series of troughs reload and push through the E US over the next few weeks. This should knock and hold high temps down to the 40s/lower 50s and low temps down to the 20s/lower-30s. I expect these conditions to start this Saturday and last through Thanksgiving into the start of December. A small rain chance exists Saturday morning as a coastal system enhances a frontal boundary. It’s honestly amazing that we escape a stronger rain and wind system IMO had the players interacted earlier. But the boundary and coastal system should then create a snow event for extreme NE US (NW Maine) and SE Canada later Saturday. Again, all we should see are some sprinkles Saturday morning followed by a clear-out and cold turn by Saturday night. The only other rain system I’m seeing is next Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM. From this range, it looks non-frozen but could still impact travel-related interests with rain and wind. Once it clears out (sometime Wednesday morning), the rest of Wednesday-forward should be dry. Colder NW winds behind the rain system should take us down to another level of cold feel for Thanksgiving and most of Thanksgiving weekend. There are currently no wintry threats in the foreseeable near future however we’re just about to kick-off traditional snow tracking season. IMO that’s usually ~Thanksgiving weekend, especially for NNJ elevations.

Friday (Nov 17) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most NJ locations. The best chance for 70 will be away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should start mixed with sun and clouds but eventually fill into cloudy by evening/overnight. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-50 for most NJ locations.  

Saturday (Nov 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should start cloudy with a few rain chances but then clear out as NW winds pick up. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most NJ locations. NNJ elevations and interior Pine Barrens have the best chance to dip into the 20s. Immediate coast closer to 40.

Sunday (Nov 19) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. A colder and drier feel but under mostly sunny skies. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows back down to the 20s/30s.

An early look at next week indicates a more consistent colder pattern sustaining. Much more seasonably average feeling. Low humidity with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 20s/30s. Looks like a solid rain system could come through Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM. This could impact travel interests at a very busy time. Otherwise, dry on either side of that system. Thanksgiving looks very traditional temp-wise (highs 45-48) with dry conditions followed by a cold night into Black Friday and rest of next weekend. All clear conditions for the shopping craziness.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™