Warmer but Unsettled

Jonathan Carr
By May 14, 2022 00:40

Warmer but Unsettled

Discussion: The annoying low pressure system, that tracked a loop from just SE of NJ (last weekend’s storm), towards Bermuda earlier this week, the backwards towards the SE US (last few days), is now coming up the coast as disorganized remnants but still enough cause showers and thunderstorms in an otherwise area of higher geopotential heights. So we’re muggy and rainy/stormy this weekend rather than raw and rainy/stormy. This low has to go though. It’s been generating onshore NE flow for most of ECNJ/SENJ for 7 days now—keeping said areas cloudier and in the 50s/lower-60s. Interior regions have had a much nicer week since last weekend’s system cleared out. Today we change to a warmer air mass thanks to SW flow associated with the backside of the ridge. This could cause some dense fog to form this morning. But again, the remnants of the 7-day boomerang low will track within this SW flow and keep the region unsettled through late Monday night. We finally get a warm moist air mass to move in and it clouds the region up for the lunar eclipse. Go figure. The pattern then looks zonal out of the W in the upper levels next week with a developing ridge expected for next weekend. This means 70s during the week and 80s for next weekend with a much more settled look. Some longer-range data is suggesting a tropical storm signal in the gulf of Mexico early in the week leading up to Memorial Day Weekend (about 10 days from now). Just a signal for now though. Will casually monitor with focus on any E US remnants passing through just before Memorial Day Weekend. It’s too early for a MDW forecast though. Sorry. Probably won’t take a more serious look at that until next weekend.

In English: Expect a muggier feel and mixed, but mostly cloudy, skies this weekend with showers and thunderstorms possible through Monday night. It doesn’t look like washout type stuff but certainly nuisance at times.  

Weekend Forecast:

Saturday (May 14) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most areas away from the ocean ECNJ/SENJ should hang cooler in the 60s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy and feel muggy. Scattered thunderstorms are likely, especially for PM hours. Winds should be light out of the SE in general (unless under/near a t-storm). Overnight lows should fall back into the 50s and 60s as conditions improve through Sunday morning.

Sunday (May 15) high temperatures should reach closer to 80 away the ocean and near-70 along the coast. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated thunderstorms possible. As of right now the forecast favors clouds and isolated showers during the lunar eclipse. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to around 60 for most areas.

An early look at next week indicates 70s, maybe some 80s, straight into next weekend. Maybe 65-70 range for coasties. Monday/Monday night still a little unsettled. Tuesday-forward looks more settled than this upcoming weekend. And speaking of, have a great one and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By May 14, 2022 00:40