Warmer Pattern Detected!

Discussion: Sorry I missed getting this outlook out yesterday. Got pulled in a few different directions. But here we are. These current conditions are something! Late October/early November feel with early August sun angle. We only have a few more days of this before we hop into a prolonged period of warmer temperatures starting this weekend. The flip was identified over a week ago for ~May 16-18 and it looks like that will hold true. The below-average temp pattern comes to an end this Saturday. The last trough of this persistent back-building positive-tilted trough pattern ejects out of the region to the E Friday night. We’ll deal with the unsettled front-side of it Wed into Thurs (rain with boomers possible), the unsettled center of it Thurs into Fri (iso showers but day mostly nice) and finally back side of it Friday night into early Saturday AM (colder drier NW winds and cool temperatures). By sunrise Saturday morning, heights will build as warmer flow establishes out of the W/SW with an even warmer finish to the weekend on Sunday. Both days look dry for now. Not sure how many high temps under 70 we’ll see before Fall after this Thursday/Friday…outside of colder ocean influencing immediate coasts. Regardless, a prolonged warmer pattern has been detected to start this Saturday.

Forecast

Tuesday (May 12) high temperatures should max out in the 60s..lower-60s for elevations and coasties and mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ areas away from the ocean. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-55 range NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (May 13) high temperatures should reach the 65-70 range for most NJ locations. If anyone is going to push into the 70-75 range, it would be CNJ/SNJ near the turnpike. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with passing showers likely. Winds should range from light to breezy out of the S from interior/inland to coast. Immediate coastal areas of SENJ could see gusty winds out of the S.  Overnight lows should only fall back into the 50s as rain chances continue overnight. Can’t rule out some boomers here and there.

Thursday (May 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most NJ areas. Skies could start cloudy and wet but should improve by afternoon. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to about 50 ask skies continue to improve. Still can’t rule out an isolated shower into early Friday AM hours as breezy NW winds persist.

Friday (May 15) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s/lower-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly mixed with just sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the NW for the day but relax through evening/overnight hours. Overnight lows should fall back to 40s and 50s.

An early look at the weekend (May 16-17) indicates warmer temperatures and dry conditions. And that should kick off a prolonged period of highs reaching the 70s and 80s. Actually, it looks like a prolonged period of above-average temps with more adequate rain chances continuing. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC