Warming Back Up. For Now.

Discussion: Right now, we have lower heights breaking down over coastal New England and the Mid-Atlantic US. A very positive-axis trough will situate to the NW of us and hold an upper-level SW flow over NJ through about Thursday. Today through Wednesday morning are drier periods where the surface will likely reach a high of 70 for many NJ areas. By Wednesday night the trough finally swings through and returns us cooler (highs in the 60s) for Friday and Saturday. This is when we should see periods or rain, maybe a boomer or two, push through. On Sunday the heights should lift back up and push many NJ locations back above 70 with pleasant conditions. Some longer range signs indicate us flipping to a hotter and more humid pattern around May 18. If I were you, I’d enjoy as many days with highs in the 65-72 range as possible until then. Figure out how to bottle it because you could sell it once the seasonal heat and humidity establish.

Forecast

Monday (May 4) high temperatures are, as of 245pm, into the low-to-mid 70s away from the ocean. Immediate coastal regions range from upper-50s right along the beach to 60s just inland. Skies are mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds are light-to-breezy out of the SW. Elevated fire risk exists, especially where it’s breezier. Overnight lows should fall to the mid-50s for most NJ locations and hold in anticipation of a warm Tuesday.

Tuesday (May 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Given the drier environment, we can’t rule out a run isolated/localized runs to 90 away from the ocean and especially closer to the 95 corridor. But low-to-mid 80s is a reasonably safe expectation. Even immediate coastal areas should push just above 70. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the S/SW. Fire risk concerns remain in place. Overnight lows should only fall to near-60 as winds subside from gusty to breezy but remain present into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday (May 6) high temperatures should reach the 65-70 range for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with some rain showers around. Winds should remain breezy out of the S/SW for the day and then finally return to just light by evening. Overnight lows should  range from upper-40s and coudy/dry in NNJ to mid-50s with rain showers still around for CNJ/SNJ.

Thursday (May 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain showers around, possibly even a boomer or two (SNJ favored). Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-50 range NNJ-SNJ.

Friday (May 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 NNJ-SNJ.

An early look at the weekend (May 9-10) indicates low-to-mid 60s Saturday with some rain around. Sunday looks like the better day of the weekend with lower-70s returning under clear and pleasant skies. Let’s take a closer look right before the weekend. Have a great week and please safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC