Warmup Coming

Jonathan Carr
By March 4, 2022 14:14

Warmup Coming

Discussion: High pressure should control most of the weekend as it tracks from the Northern-Central US through the Mid-Atlantic US. Friday will be the coldest day with N winds in front of the high. Saturday a step-up day as winds become S/SW. Sunday then looks the warmest with SW flow and lots of sunshine. That should put most of the coastal plain at 70 or above. Monday starts mild but eventually cools as unsettled conditions likely move in through Monday night and into Tuesday. Tuesday-Thursday looks fairly zonal out of W/SW which should keep NJ slightly above-average. Cold should then return for next weekend with a strongly modeled approaching trough. The surface disturbance is currently expected to track to far to the NW to impact NJ with wintry conditions. I’ll revisit that idea if it evolves more wintry. Otherwise looks mostly frontal to usher in the cold. I would expect alternating transient temperatures snaps, both cold and mild, through March. During these times, it could still get very cold or mild but I don’t think a prolonged pattern is going to set in and hold. Therefore, it looks very volatile for the long-range idea of March. Not seeing any wintry threats for now. It would have to thread the needle and fall hard overnight to escape rising sun angle and general climatology once we’re in mid-March.

Friday (March 4) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s for most areas. Perhaps low-40s for coastal regions. Skies should be mixed but more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the lower-20s for most possibly teens for usual colder spots (elevations/Pigmy Pines).

Saturday (March 5) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most areas. Saturday will be a step-up day towards what’s coming. Skies should gradually improve throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should struggle to drop below 40 for most (mid-30s for elevations).

Sunday (March 6) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for many. The cold Atlantic could keep immediate coastal areas in the 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a few showers possible in the morning. Afternoon-evening looks pretty good. A solid spring teaser. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from N to S.

An early look at next week indicates mild conditions spilling over into some of Monday. SNJ warmer than NNJ. Then Tuesday-forward looks like 40s/50s during the day and 20s/30s overnight. Next  weekend looks a little colder but then another warmup after. Expect temperatures to remain transient in either direction for much of March. It doesn’t look like a mild or cold pattern is going to set in for a prolonged time. Just snaps back and forth. No winter storms are expected in the immediate forecasting period. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By March 4, 2022 14:14