We Bake (July 17-19)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 17, 2020 11:51

We Bake (July 17-19)

Discussion: The upper jet should remain to the N of NJ until the bottom of a trough swings through next weekend. That leaves our region in a sea of ridging until then with the strongest flex point this coming Sunday-Monday. At the surface this means the most oppressive heat and humidity of this wave occurring on those days. Today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) will be a build up to that period and then conditions should slowly moderate Tuesday-forward (while still being hot through at least Thursday). Wednesday through Thursday could feature a few weak areas of low pressure moving through which would in-theory mean rainy/stormy. The next sign of true relief would occur with the trough arrival next weekend in the form of N/NW anti-cyclonic flow at the surface. Each high that comes through is a double-edged sword with its anti-cyclonic flow. 1-2 days of N/NW surface flow ahead of the high but then the flow reverses back to S/SW on the backside. Therefore I wouldn’t expect any prolonged relief but the transient relief might just fall on next weekend. Other than the heat and humidity this weekend I don’t see much rain or storms. A widespread capping inversion is likely in the low-mid levels which should inhibit the liftable air parcels from taking cumulus into cumulonimbus. In this setup it’s more of a widespread dry/extremely localized random shower/t-storm environment. My best guess for where these would occur (if they occur) would be along any sea breeze frontal boundaries that can push inland aggressive enough. (for ECNJ/SENJ).

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (July 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mixed with showers and thunderstorms around. You should notice the return back to higher humidity today which should increase heat indices to near-100. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s from elevations to sea.

Saturday (July 18) high temperatures should break into the 90s for most areas away from the ocean. ECNJ/SENJ could top out in the 80s prior to any sea breeze relief. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with elevated humidity. Heat indices likely 100+. Any random pop-up shower or thunderstorm would be extremely isolated. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to sea.

Sunday (July 19) high temperatures should reach well into the 90s away from the ocean. I would not be surprised to see traditional warmer locations interior CNJ/SNJ flirt with breaking 100. Coastal regions of ECNJ/SENJ might flirt with 90 before any sea breeze forms. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with elevated humidity. Heat indices should be well over 100. Any random pop-up shower or thunderstorm would be extremely isolated. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-70s to upper-70s from elevations to sea.

An early look at next week indicates more excessive heat with high humidity for at least Monday. Tuesday-Wednesday looks not as excessive but still up there. Wednesday-Thursday unsettled (rainy/stormy) and warm. Possibly some relief by Friday. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great weekend, stay as cool and hydrated as possible, and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr July 17, 2020 11:51