Week Starts Unsettled. Ends Nice (June 27-July 1)

A slow moving frontal boundary will keep the region unsettled to start the week. High pressure then settles in to approach the holiday weekend. Let’s break it down:

Monday (June 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most away from the ocean. Coastal regions could be held to the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny for most of the day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should only fall into the upper-60s statewide.

Tuesday (June 28) high temperatures should reach about 80 statewide. Skies should feature mixed sun and clouds with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms than Monday, especially towards the coast. This will be due to the proximity of the frontal boundary providing additional lift to diurnal destabilization. A sea breeze front could jump into the ring as well so we’ll have to watch. Winds should remain light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s in NNJ elevations to upper-60s in SNJ/SENJ.

Wednesday (June 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most away from the ocean. Coastal regions could be held to the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Some remnant AM shower and storms are possible but at least afternoon-forward looks pretty good as high pressure builds behind the departed frontal boundary. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s in NNJ elevations to upper-60s in SNJ/SENJ.

Thursday (June 30) high temperatures should reach into the 80s statewide. I suppose 90 is possible for interior SNJ/CNJ but you might just fall short. Regardless, humidity will not be too bad. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW for most of New Jersey aside from any E/SE sea breezes that form along the immediate coast. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s in NNJ elevations to upper-60s in SNJ/SENJ.

Friday (July 1) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. Interior SNJ/CNJ could flirt with 90 again and the coast could be held in the upper-70s.  Skies should be mostly sunny but with humidity trying to trickle back in. Therefore, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially for afternoon-evening hours. Overnight lows should drop into the 60s statewide.

An early look at the holiday weekend indicates a rain system passing closely to our S in the Saturday night-Sunday morning time frame. There is still some uncertainty whether this system will stay to the S of Cape May or reach a bit into SNJ. Otherwise daytime hours on Saturday and the second half of Sunday look great with Monday, July 4th looking like the best day of the weekend as of now. If the Sat PM-Sun AM system misses us to the south then it could be a slam-dunk holiday weekend. The official July 4th weekend outlook will be posted on Thursday but I’ll be tracking that system this week and will update accordingly.

Unfortunately, the drought situation is worsening, especially for CNJ and NNJ. SNJ is within average soil moisture parameters. Without any major rain systems modeled, we’ll have to bank on any frontal activity to bring at least some moisture to NNJ and CNJ soil. Have a great week and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™