Weekly Outlook – Summery Week. Rainy/Stormy End

Discussion: The trough that dominated the weekend is moving out but the back-side of it is still around for today (Monday). 250mb wind and 500mb geopotential height analysis is concurrent in suggesting a ridge building behind the trough for much of this week. That’s what will give us anomalously warm temperatures and elevated humidity Tues-Fri as a surface high approaches Bermuda and drives warm/moist SW flow into NJ. Friday through Sunday morning is a different story. A slow-moving rain/storm front (convergence-driven mostly) should approach NNJ from the W as early as Friday evening. At the same time a coastal low should develop off the SE US, track up the coast, and merge with the slow-moving front. This should pull the rain/storm front from NNJ into SNJ on Saturday as everything wraps into the back of the departing surface low. So, rain and storms for NNJ between Friday night and Saturday morning…then the same for SNJ between Saturday and early Sunday. It should all clear out for an expected Sunday being the nicest day of the weekend. That’s how it looks now but let’s see how the data evolves over the next few days. I know there are a lot of outdoor plans/proms/etc. happening this weekend with large outdoor interest, including my own.

Forecast

Monday (June 2) high temperatures should reach the 70-75 range for most NJ locations. Skies are mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should remain light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 45-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (June 3) high temperatures should break 80 away from the ocean and hang in the mid-to-upper 70s along the coasts. Very small chance someone in interior CNJ/SNJ flirts with 90. Skies should be mostly sunny but Canadian wildfire smoke could produce haze. Winds should be light out of the SW (enter the humidity). Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (June 4) high temperatures should reach or slightly break 90 in the warmest interior CNJ/SNJ locations. Otherwise, well into the 80s for most of NJ with a humid feel. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasties could still hang in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be sunny and hazy again with light winds out of the S. While unlikely, you can’t rule out an iso pop-up shower or thunderstorm with this kind of setup. Overnight lows should only fall back to near-60 statewide.

Thursday (June 5) high temperatures should reach the 85-90 range for most NJ locations. Coasties hanging in the 77-82 range prior to any sea breeze action. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Again, can’t rule out isolated pop-up showers or thunderstorms mainly afternoon-early evening hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should stay above 60 statewide.

Friday (June 6) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s with a humid feel. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. A better chance for rain and storms Friday night than prior days as a disturbance approaches NNJ. SNJ seems delayed for such until Saturday. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 60s for most NJ locations.

An early look at the weekend (June 7-8) indicates rain and thunderstorms pushing from NNJ int SNJ between Friday night and Saturday. Current models have the rain clearing out early Sunday morning producing Sunday as the best outdoor weather day of the weekend. Otherwise the weekend looks not as hot as the week though still seasonably warm (highs 75-85). Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC