We’re Getting There

Discussion: The Omega block, mentioned earlier this week in the weekly outlook, is taking shape and will deliver a cooler/drier NW flow to NJ this weekend (rounding the E trough of the Omega block setup). For that reason, Saturday might not make it out of the upper-60s…however with a UV index of 11 and low humidity, that’s going to feel refreshing and comfortable especially with the increased winds. Might actually feel chilly in the shade and warm in the sun kind of thing. Today (Friday) and Sunday look similar with temps well into the 70s. The only rain chance I see this weekend is between midnight tonight (Friday night) and sunrise Saturday morning…and that’s only in the form of passing isolated showers, not a large slug of widespread rain. Next week we start with highs in the lower-70s and end with highs in the upper-70s/lower-80s..which looks to lock in as a pattern through June. The lack of rainfall is concerning, despite the amount received during Memorial Day weekend. That rain did make a dent in the developing drought, but we need much more to balance out the water tables and reservoirs. In the meantime, immaculate conditions will continue in the form of comfortable temps, abundant high sun angle and great conditions for outdoor plan interests. Is it ideal “pool/beach” weather? Not exactly. There will be plenty of that this summer. For now, it’s still spring and believe it or not sometimes spring acts like spring instead of an early summer.

Forecast

Friday (May 29) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. A few interior spots maybe just over 80 but immediate coastal areas of ECNJ/SENJ closer to 70. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds with low humidity and a pleasant feel. Winds should remain light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-60 range NNJ to SNJ. Can’t rule out a few passing isolated showers, especially NNJ/CNJ, but that should be out of here by sunrise Saturday morning.

Saturday (May 30) high temperatures should reach the 65-70 range for most NJ locations. Skies should transition from cloudy to mixed (more sun than clouds) throughout the day. More of a late-Sept/early-Oct feel but dry. Winds should be breezy out of the NW, possibly gusty for some NNJ areas. Overnight lows should fall to the 40-50 NNJ to SNJ range with frost potential for NWNJ elevations. Winds should gradually subside into Sunday morning.

Sunday (May 31) high temperatures should range from 70-75 from coast to inland/elevations…most of NJ into the mid-70s and possibly a run at 80 in WCNJ/SWNJ. Another beautiful day with mostly sunny skies and a pleasant feel (low humidity). Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall back to the 50-60 NNJ to SNJ range.

An early look at next week (June 1-5) indicates a gradual build back to a sustained average, even slightly above average temperature pattern. That looks like highs in the low-to-mid 70s to start the week building up to highs in the upper-70s/lower-80s by the end of the week. Not seeing much rain outside of passing isolated showers. No large synoptic rainmakers as drought concerns remain elevated despite recent rainfall. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC