We’re getting there.

Jonathan Carr
By May 2, 2022 14:24

We’re getting there.

Discussion: A few boomers came through early this morning. A frontal boundary is currently holding SNJ/SWNJ in the 70s while the rest of NJ holds in the 50s/60s. A rather mundane week of weather. Still slightly cooler than average with rain chances Wednesday and then Friday into the weekend. Wednesday is a pretty simple disturbance that should move in during early AM hours and clear out sometime in the afternoon. Thursday then looks mild as a more distinguished system moves in. We have a closed-off upper level low that will float through the E US over a period of 4-6 days (the guidance is spread on end timing). This likely means that Friday and at least some of Saturday should feature rainfall with cooler temps (highs in the 50s). Saturday night and Mother’s Day Sunday are too uncertain to call rain-wise. But with more confidence, the temps look to remain cool through Sunday. With any luck, Mother’s Day will work out dry and sunny despite the cooler air mass. The influence of this upper level low could possibly span into early next week (prolonged onshore flow – keeping temps down). Some long range indicators suggest a more sustainable warm pattern begins mid next week around Wednesday-forward. Even still, near-70 or even low-70s will fall short of the mid-70s average…but it won’t matter much as days will be mild and pleasant despite being cooler for this time of year. But wow, what a relentless below-average start to spring! Trough after trough and marine flow after marine flow.

Monday (May 2) high temperatures are ranging from 70s (S/W of S Burlington County border) to 50s in NNJ. Most of Ocean and Burlington Counties have reached into the 60s. Conditions will remain unsettled with overnight lows falling to near-50.

Tuesday (May 3) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ would have the best shot at reaching/breaking 70. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with rain likely moving in overnight (by Weds morning). Winds should be light out of the E/NE (off the ocean). Overnight lows should again hover near-50.

Wednesday (May 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with showers around. Morning/afternoon hours look wetter than evening/overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should stay just above 50.

Thursday (May 5) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most areas. Immediate coastal regions of ECNJ/SENJ could hang lower in the 60s from marine influence. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to near-50 again.

Friday (May 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with some showers around. Winds should be light out of the S but slowly transition to off the ocean. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to coasts with rain possible into the weekend.

An early look at the weekend indicates cool (highs in the 50s), cloudy, and possibly rainy conditions for at least Saturday but possibly also on Mother’s Day Sunday. There’s a lot of uncertainty though so I’ll be adjusting this week as needed. Mid next week looks to start a sustainable pattern where highs reach the 70s. The current prolonged cool/transient warm pattern should only have about 10 days left. In the meantime, this Thursday should offer a preview of what’s to come. Hang in there and have a great week. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By May 2, 2022 14:24