Wet Conditions (Oct 26-30)

Discussion: Nothing remarkably anomalous in the upper-levels (jet or geo heights). The current disturbance will continue to bring rain Sunday overnight into Monday morning. SENJ seeing more moisture than NWNJ. Tuesday and Wednesday look the least wet this week but still a chance for light rain, drizzle, and fog. Then another tropical cyclone (currently Tropical Storm Zeta) should emerge out of the W Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico early this week. ZETA could be come a hurricane and make landfall somewhere in the central northern gulf states on Wednesday. Another disturbance will be tracking from the Rockies towards the E US and will couple up with ZETA’s remnants into a double-barrel low formation. The first low (ZETA’s remnants) should move through NJ on Thursday with the second (Rockies low) immediately after on Friday. ZETA will lose any destructive aspects long before it reaches NJ. But with that said, Thursday and Friday should be very unsettled with periods of heavy rain and cloudy/breezy skies. This coming weekend looks a bit uncertain. Typically we see a dry and cool period behind disturbances like Thurs-Fri. However some models are printing out a colder solution with even some wet snow for points N. Will have to monitor but I will warn you, the first few modeled snow events of the season like this rarely pan out. Climatologically it is more probable for the highest elevations of the Poconos, Catskills, and maybe upper Sussex County NJ. The most probable scenario for all of NJ would be a cold rain.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Oct 26) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to sea. Skies should start mostly cloudy and damp. SNJ a little wetter than NNJ. Some sunny breaks possible by afternoon. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to near-60 from elevations to sea.

Tuesday (Oct 27) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to sea.  Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of light rain/drizzle/fog likely developing by evening through overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to mid-50s from elevations to sea.

Wednesday (Oct 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. Skies should range from partly sunny in NNJ to mostly cloudy in SNJ. Can’t rule out more lingering light rain/drizzle/fog. Winds should remain light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to near-60 from elevations to sea.

Thursday (Oct 29) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to sea. Skies should be mostly cloudy and humid. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times, are likely, especially for PM hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea.

Friday (Oct 30) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to mid-50s from elevations to sea. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with more rain likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from near-freezing to near-40 from elevations to sea.

An early look at the weekend indicates improved conditions but colder. A mix of sun and clouds with highs reaching the mid-to-upper 50s and lows dipping into the 30s for many. Let’s throw a small wildcard on the table that some precip lingers around with temps aloft cold enough for some N areas to see the first snowflakes of the season. We’ll go with a very small chance of this and a much better chance for the former scenario. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™