Winter Fading Fast (For Now)

Discussion: The latest model data is significantly backing off all snow chances in the next week or so and instead is gearing up for a lead-in to abnormally warm temperatures March 5-forward. There are still a few waves to discuss, but none of them seem like high impact events for NJ either way:

Today (Feb 26): The sliding wave is approaching now and will likely produce rain only for mainly SNJ, possibly some of CNJ. There is a small chance of some snowflakes mixed in under heavier precipitation rates (closer to sunset) but nothing that’s going to accumulate, especially with the 40+ temps across CNJ/SNJ.

Friday and Saturday (Feb 27 and 28) look dry and should feel rather mild after recent times. Temps could reach 50 give or take Saturday and that should take a crippling blow on remaining snowpack from the Feb 22-23 snowstorm. It’s already getting slaughtered by current temps in the 40s + late-February sun angle.

On Sunday (March 1) a potent cold front will pass though and possibly with some snow showers for NNJ/rain showers for SNJ. Possibly a mix for CNJ. Since it will be cold enough with the cold front, a coating to an inch or two is possible for NNJ/NWNJ elevations. But little-to-no accumulation for CNJ/SNJ. The cold front sets up a colder Sunday night through all of Monday.

Another wave is possible Monday into Tuesday (March 2 into 3) but the trend on all guidance data has been for high pressure to set up over/near NJ and squash most precip to the S of NJ. A light accumulation would be possible across extreme SNJ but not seeming noteworthy.

Then sometime in the Thursday-Saturday (March 5-7) period, either one or two waves (yet TBD) will usher in a prolonged period of milder temperatures. That system(s) might start wintry but would end as rain. A dominant Bermuda high pressure setup would then park and provide S/SW flow for NJ for at least a week. It might be the 2^nd-3^rd week of March before conditions cool down again.

There is the potential for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) which could split/dislodge the Polar Vortex (PV) in a way that brings well-below average temperatures back before the end of March. That’s what would be needed for any late-season snowfall because average, even slightly below average, temperatures would not cut it give the sun angle and climatology involved in late March.

In English: A few waves of mostly nuisance precipitation are possible in the next 7 days or so but currently nothing needing winter storm preparations. The waves are likely not powerful enough to override sun angle and climatology to the point of snow accumulations. Therefore, we are going to back off on tracking these as storm signals and instead treat as nuisance conditions featuring some much-needed rainfall. Rain is a much more likely precipitation type outside of Sunday for NNJ. We then start a warm period heading into next weekend and should stay in a warmer pattern for at least a week. We’re talking about highs possibly into the 70s for some of interior SNJ…60s for all. Whether or not winter tries to make a late comeback in the second half of March is far yet TBD. Be safe! JC

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