Winter Reloads (Jan 21-25)

Discussion: Temperatures will continue to drop overnight tonight until about sunrise tomorrow morning. Most of the state should range from single-digits to teens NNJ to SNJ but no reason why NNJ elevations can’t drop below zero. The gusty winds will make it feel even colder than it is. We should remain very cold through Wednesday morning. From Wednesday PM through Friday AM temperatures should rise for another rain event. This will be a very transient spike in temperatures and it basically the Arctic pattern reloading. As of right now there are no ice threats for Wednesday. It appears that peak daylight hours will warm the surface in-time. But given how cold it will be from now until Wed AM I’ll monitor in-case it becomes an issue. We’ll then dive back to frigid conditions for the weekend and foreseeable future. So to recap there will be no shortage of cold over the next few weeks. The Pacific Ocean currently has several areas of energy that should eventually come onto land in the W US and track across the country. Given the expected sustainable cold in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, these systems have a good chance of ejecting in the S Mid-Atlantic E US in the favorable location for NJ snow events. The general period of interest is between January 26 and February 2. This period could feature a larger snow storm but likely at least a few smaller events.

Monday (Jan 21) high temperatures should range from about 10 to 20 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the N/NW keeping the wind chill factor VERY cold. Overnight lows should range from single digits to teens NNJ to SNJ. There’s no reason why NWNJ elevations can’t dip below zero.

Tuesday (Jan 22) high temperatures should reach the upper-20s maybe near-30. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be lighter out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Jan 23) high temperatures should range from 40 to 50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should mostly cloudy with rain possible for PM hours. Winds should be breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ as rainfall likely continues.

Thursday (Jan 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with AM rainfall clearing during PM hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 NNJ to SNJ as skies continue to clear.

Friday (Jan 25) high temperatures should only reach the 30s statewide. Skies should feature mixed sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W (moreso along the coast). Overnight lows should range from single-digits to teens NNJ to SNJ as winter reloads with sustainable cold air.

An early look at the weekend indicates continued cold conditions. Highs should fail to rise above freezing for most with pipe-bursting overnight lows. I’m watching the general January 26-February 2 period for our next winter weather potential. Find out why over 15,000 people have now downloaded the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and/or Android. It’s the easiest way to never miss Weather NJ content. Have a great rest of your Sunday evening. Please stay warm and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™