Discussion: This morning there was a stationary boundary draped across SNJ which is now advancing northward through CNJ as a warm front. This is the culprit for the current CNJ/SNJ storms firing along the extended Mason Dixon line and points
Discussion: Hard to deduce much from 250/500mb levels. The jet will be a little N of NJ. Geopotential height anomalies are modeled only a little above average. But overall a near-zonal flow until a trough dips into the region Tuesday-Wednesday.
Discussion: Now that most of NJ is out of the oven (Mon-Wed heat) and resting (except for SWNJ and WCNJ – they are still cooking), I wanted to update for the coming weekend. Not quite yet the detailed weekend outlook
Discussion: In the words of the late Glenn Frey, “The Heat is On!” De na NA nana da NAna NAna! The upper jet, observed at 250mb, should stay well to the N of NJ this week. From 500mb analysis, a
Discussion: We’re now in a warm sector. The warm front is through and winds are changing to more of a SW direction with increasing temperatures and humidity. A round or two of showers and thunderstorms are possible today (Wednesday) and
Discussion: The upper-jet, observed at 250mb, should stay N of NJ for most of the foreseeable future outside of a small dip this Thursday-Friday. That jives with 500mb heights analysis of the bottom of an expected trough grazing through NJ
Discussion: The upper-jet, observed at 250mb, should stay to the N of NJ for the next week or so. This will keep NJ under slightly higher geopotential heights, observed at 500mb, for the same period—producing warmer conditions at the surface.
Discussion: The upper jet should be over of just N of NJ this week. That jives with the expected average profile of geopotential height anomalies of the near-zonal flow pattern. There will be an upper-low/trough lifting into SE Canada Tues-Wed
Discussion: Not too many changes in the evolution of this weekend’s forecast. We still have a slow-moving linear area of convergence that should push across NJ from NW to SE and meet up with a weak coastal disturbance. Not much
Discussion: The trough that dominated the weekend is moving out but the back-side of it is still around for today (Monday). 250mb wind and 500mb geopotential height analysis is concurrent in suggesting a ridge building behind the trough for much
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