Above Average Temps. First Rain in a While

Discussion: SE Canadian/NE US ridging will flex this Tues-Wed, making for above average temperatures for this time of year. A very weak area of lower geopotential heights will then slide through between Thurs and Friday, forcing a small SW fetch (warm sector) ahead, some rain Thursday into Friday, and then ultimately clearing for the weekend. Temps return to a more seasonal feel Saturday and Sunday. So a mild buildup into Wed, rain Thurs-Fri and another nice weekend. We could sure use any rain we can get.

Forecast

Monday (Nov 2) night should dip to the 35-50 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mostly clear with a few clouds here and there. Winds should remain light out of the SW.

Tuesday (Nov 3) high temperatures should reach into the mid-60s for most of NJ. Typical warmer locations away from the ocean could reach 70. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-53 range NNJ to SNJ with fog possible into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday (Nov 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Looks like the warmest day of the week. Skies could start foggy in the morning but that should bake off by late-morning for mostly clear afternoon/evening skies. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 under mixed skies.

Thursday (Nov 5) high temperatures should reach near-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun with showers around during the day and a more concentrated period of rain overnight. SENJ should receive more rain than NWNJ. I’m seeing about .25-.5” for NWNJ, 1-2” for SENJ and about a half inch to an inch between. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to near-60 as showers continue into early Friday morning.

Friday (Nov 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should start off mostly cloudy with showers around. Improvement is expected after noon and forward. Winds should eventually turn light-to-breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-55 range as conditions continue to improve.

An early look at the weekend (Nov 7-8) indicates more great fall conditions. I’m seeing highs 60-65, lows 35-50, and more dry conditions. Thursday into Friday looks like the only rain for this forecast period. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC