Alright Until the Rain Starts

Discussion: Most 250mb upper jet and 500mg geopotential height analysis is unremarkable for lower level expectations this weekend into next week. We’re still in a near-zonal flow pattern oscillating between NW and W flow for NJ, which has been responsible for our transitions between warm/muggy and cool/comfortable. Today (Friday) was the last warm/muggy day above 80. We’ll now turn cool/comfortable for a beautiful tomorrow (Saturday) before a prolonged period of cool/unsettled. Rain could start in NNJ first early Sunday and then later Sunday PM for SNJ. With that said, SNJ could squeeze out a few good hours Sunday before the rain moves in. I don’t think it will be constant rain Sunday-Saturday. But I do see lots of clouds and intermittent periods of rain. Most Sunday-Wednesday rain seems generated by convergence between high pressure to the N and S (drifting W to E overall)—that hands off lifting to a weak coastal disturbance Thursday into the weekend. Either way, I expect to not see the sun for a while. And when we emerge on the other side of this, it will feel much more “pumpkin spice latte” time with noticeably later sunrises/earlier sunsets and a whole new temperature profile to get used to. It’s amazing how a few darker days can amplify that time dilation of seasonal change. That could be it for common 80+ highs for a while. 80+ might happen a handful of times between now and mid-October but anomalously. The tropics remain quiet for east coast concerns mainly due to the El Nino temperate split/shearing upper jet pattern and dust ejecting westward off the Sahara Desert. The Pacific is also aligned with El Nino tropical activity in the form of a more active pattern.

Forecast

Friday (Sept 18) high temperatures maxed in the lower-80s for most NJ locations. Skies have been mixed with sun and clouds. Humidity started off higher statewide but is slowly lowering N to S. SNJ is last to see relief. Winds should remain light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the 50-65 range NNJ to SNJ with likely only coasties staying above 60.

Saturday (Sept 19) high temperatures should max in the 70-75 range for most NJ locations with lower humidity. I will state the caveat that SNJ/SENJ could see less relief from humidity than NNJ/CNJ does but at least some. Otherwise, it looks like a gorgeous day IMO. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 as rain moves in from NW to SE.

Sunday (Sept 20) high temperatures should range from 65-78 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. NNJ/CNJ seem more likely to see a wider-spread soaking earlier on Sunday vs SNJ which could see their rain in shorter-duration patchier showers and thunderstorms later Sunday into Monday. With that said, SNJ could see some alright weather outside to start Sunday morning and possibly last into afternoon. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should range from 58-68 NNJ to SNJ as periods of rainfall continue into Monday.

An early look at next week (Sept 21-25) indicates clouds and rain lasting through the week possibly into next weekend. Temps should stay in the 60s/lower-70s for highs. A cool and unsettled period that should mark a noticeably transitional feel from late summer into early fall. The tropics remain quiet for east coast interests. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC