Cold Week Expected (Dec 25-29)

Discussion: Please be careful tonight, especially in NWNJ, as wintry precipitation is likely. We have not changed our forecast and snow map. Immediately following this system will be strong winds out of the W/NW. Gusts of 40mph+ are possible throughout Christmas Day with sustained speeds of 15-25mph. After that a very cold air mass moves in and stays for at least the rest of the year…possibly into January. I’m talking pipe-bursting cold especially Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday night. Watch out for some snow showers mid-week surrounding a weak passing shortwave in the upper levels. Wednesday would be the day for that. The weekend winter storm signal is still there on ensemble guidance and the overall pattern seems favorable for winter storm development. Tuesday will be the day to start seriously tracking this potential if the signal remains on the ensemble spread through Tuesday. Until then the operational runs, especially their surface output, are useless.

Monday (Dec 25) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should gradually clear throughout the day. Winds should be strong and gusty out of the W/NW (wind chills in play). Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Dec 26) high temperatures should range from upper-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should again range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ. You might see NNJ dip into single-digits overnight.

Wednesday (Dec 27) high temperatures should struggle to get above freezing statewide. NNJ may just break into the lower-20s. Skies should be partly cloudy with snow showers possible. Accumulations would be light if any but everything that does fall would stick instantly. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from single-digits to teens NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Dec 28) high temperatures should fail to escape the 20s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-zero to upper-teens NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Dec 29) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 20s for most again. Perhaps parts of SNJ/SENJ reach the low-30s. Skies should increase in cloud coverage throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from teens to low-20s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates a winter storm signal for Saturday into Sunday. I’ll be talking a much closer look at this over the next day or two and will report in detail starting this Tuesday. Until then I expect the models to flip and flop all over. The signal is still there on the ensembles which is all I care about from this range. Everyone have a Merry Christmas and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web, social media, and app spaces. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™