More Great Fall Conditions

Discussion: The W/NW upper flow pattern continues for NJ as ridging works its way from the C US to the E US between now and next week. At the surface this means more beautiful fall conditions this weekend into at least mid-next week. Once the upper level ridging gets further to the E (mid-next-week), we could be looking at a few days where high temps break 70. But still chilly nights. A temporary break in the pattern is expected as a cut-off area of lower heights develops towards the end of next week. Let’s call it Thursday into the weekend. Seems like a positive tilted disorganized trough, but enough to introduce some rain back into the pattern. But for this weekend, please continue to enjoy the great fall conditions.

You’ve probably seen a lot of early-season polar vortex split talk lately. Honestly, the entire wave of click-bait weather outlets (amateurs and pros), has gotten quite annoying. Two weeks ago, a gradient wind pattern was advertised as a nor’easter “coming for NJ,” which I still say was not. A nor’easter is what hit late-September, not the wind farts and barely minor coastal flooding that grazed extreme SENJ two weeks ago. The news cycle has now moved on to make you think that Winter of 2013-2014 polar vortex is coming. Yeah, I’m going to call strike two on that dawg. There may be a polar vortex split, with a lobe breaking down into N America. However, through a long series of tropospheric propagation, that means impacts would not be felt until mid-to-late November, if they propagate to the surface levels at all. The end result could be a simple as a cold (below-average) week before/during Thanksgiving. Nothing that’s going to push the needle closer to snow season already starting anyway (shrug). If a snow system pops up 5-7 days away in mid-to-late November, we’ll cover it as always. But I’m not going to jump on the “oh my God, the PV is coming” train 3-4 weeks out like some outlets are doing. A strong El Nino favors prolonged periods of above-average temperatures with transient periods of “proper winter cold.” If the moisture times with the shorter cold periods, we’ll have snow this winter (like 2009-2010 or 2015-2016 Nino). If moisture times with the longer warmer periods, we’ll see rain systems (more like 97-98 Nino).  

Forecast

Saturday (Oct 31) high temperatures should max near-60 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly clear and sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 20s for NNJ elevations, lower-40s along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts, and 30s for most of the state between. A hazard-free night for those trick-or-treating, but dress warm because temperatures are going to drop rather fast with loss of sunlight. Temps should be 50-55 around 5-6pm and 40-45 around 10pm.  

Sunday (Nov 1) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Another great fall day (no shortage of that this fall). Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (Nov 2-6) indicates more great fall conditions for at least the first half of the week. Temps slightly warmer than lately. Mid-to-upper 60s with several spot possibly reaching 70+ in a low humidity environment. Seeing some unsettled activity heading into next weekend Thurs-Sat which could bring rainfall for the first time in a while. No major systems on the horizon as of now.

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers an ad-free environment, inside info (Above and Beyond) forecast discussion, your questions prioritized, and early storm impact maps and video releases (ahead of the public). At $1.99 per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show additional support for Weather NJ and you can turn it on and off for however many months you wish. Think of it as a tip jar with perks. Available onFacebook or Patreon. 

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts from real meteorologists and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ commercial interests.

KABOOM Shop is live if you want some KABOOM or Weather NJ Merch!

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC