Rainfall Kicks off Weekend

Discussion: The upper levels are rather unremarkable for the next week or so. More zonal flow of mostly positive height anomalies with the occasional cut-off low floating through. At the surface, we have rain moving in tonight (Thursday night) and falling through at least Friday afternoon, with the potential for some embedded thunderstorms within the heaviest rainfall. Looks like a widespread general expectation of 1-2 inches of rainfall for NJ. Next week looks quieter to start but then some more rain just before the weekend.

Our first fantasy snow system is showing on the Euro for the Friday-Saturday (Nov 13-14) period. The system favors NWNJ with wet snow and mostly rain for the rest of NJ. We are 8 days out so I will need to see some other guidance correlate with this before any level of serious tracking can begin. For now, a fantasy to watch for a few days. There’s no doubt a low could form and batter up the coast some more. But thermals are going to struggle to support snow. This isn’t a Halloween 2011 or November 2012 situation. Recommend a cautious watch for now with zero hype or panic. There’s a larger chance of this falling off of model guidance than remaining on for 8 days this time of year.

Forecast

Thursday (Nov 5) overnight low temperatures should hover in the 60-65 range as rainfall pushes into NJ from the W and spreads throughout the state by Friday AM. Can’t rule out a boomer or two but mostly just much-needed rainfall.

Friday (Nov 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more periods of rainfall, sometimes heavy, and more boomer chances through late afternoon/early evening. I expect rain to clear the E NJ coast no later than midnight but likely earlier. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 NNJ to SNJ as conditions continue improvement. 1-2 inches of rainfall are possible when all is said and done.

Saturday (Nov 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with mostly sun and some clouds. Can’t rule out some remnant sprinkles later in the day. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-50 range statewide with more sprinkles possible.

Sunday (Nov 8) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny but a little breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week (Nov 9-13) indicates average to above-average temperatures. Nicer Monday-Wednesday, a little unsettled looking Thursday-Friday then a nicer weekend but colder (highs in the 50s). Watching the Nov 13-14 period for at least a coastal storm, possibly some wintry conditions for elevations. But just watching for now, not acting on it. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC