Rude Awakening after Anomalous Warmth

Discussion: This crap (80 degrees with humidity) was supposed to be over for the year. But Isaias decided to form and hurl a bunch of warmth and humidity at NJ as a ridge develops. This is going to result in some whacky temperature swings between now and this weekend. It looks like we’re going to start the buildup Tuesday and flex the warmest and most humid on Wednesday. This should put a lot of places 10 degrees or more above average for mid-October. This should be the extent of the ridge flex. Thursday and Friday look closer to seasonably average temperatures. Thursday a few degrees below and Friday a few above…but closer to average. On Friday we’re looking at some passing showers but then a trough swings through and takes us into conditions more common for November rather than mid-October. Saturday-Sunday should feature temperatures 10 degrees cooler than average or more. You could see a 40 degree swing between Wednesday afternoon’s high temperature and Sunday morning’s low temperature. So an anomalous warm and humid buildup Tues-Wed, cooler Thurs, milder Friday, then a rude awakening for Saturday-Sunday in the form of a cold front leading a deeper trough out of Canada.

Forecast

Tuesday (Oct 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with increasing humidity by days end. Fog is possible in the morning followed by some sun and passing shower possibility later in the afternoon. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from 60-65 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Oct 14) high temperatures should reach near-80, likely approaching several record high temperatures for this day. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Oct 15) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s with lower humidity. Quite a difference in feel from Wednesday. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Can’t rule out a few showers overnight as lows drop to the 48-60 range NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Oct 16) high temperatures should range from upper 60s for NNJ elevations to mid-70s along the SNJ coasts. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun, clouds and passing showers. Winds should transition from SW to NW by afternoon/evening. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most of NJ. Immediate coasts might hang near or just above 50.

An early look at the weekend (Oct 17-18) indicates a rather rude awakening for mid-October. I’m seeing highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s (40-45 for coasties). Mostly dry after any of Friday’s rain ends. Get the colder clothes/gear ready and prepare for heaters to be forced on if they weren’t yet last week. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers an ad-free environment, inside info (Above and Beyond) forecast discussion, your questions prioritized, and early storm impact maps and video releases (ahead of the public). At $1.99 per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show additional support for Weather NJ and you can turn it on and off for however many months you wish. Think of it as a tip jar with perks. Available onFacebook or Patreon. 

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts from real meteorologists and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ commercial interests.

KABOOM Shop is live if you want some KABOOM or Weather NJ Merch!

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC