Saturday Better than Sunday

Discussion: Isaias made landfall in far W FL Panhandle this evening as a category 2 hurricane. The trend is a quick fall apart. It’s already down to a cat 1 with more weakening expected into Saturday morning. Isaias will now track NW towards N Louisiana, hit a ridge and exit stage right towards NJ. So, the remnant low will pass over or near NJ Sunday. It will just be too weak to produce any sort of alarming situation. NJ is looking at a half-inch to 1.5 inches of rain, maybe some spots see 2. Winds should be low-to-maybe a few moderate gusts near a thunderstorm. No coastal flooding but flash flooding if a thunderstorm dumps out locally mainly Sunday night. So another beautiful day Saturday followed by a gloomy, rainy, humid, possibly stormy Sunday. Next week looks very nice behind the remnants for Mon-Wed, outside of some showers grazing NNJ. Then cooler Thursday-forward as Canadian high pressure drives colder air down its front side.

Forecast

Friday (Oct 9) night temperatures should fall into the 40s for most of NJ. Elevations could dip in the upper-30s while immediate coastal regions of ECNJ/SENJ stay above 50. Tranquil skies and light NW winds.

Saturday (Oct 10) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed and transitional. More sun that clouds in the morning, more clouds than sun by afternoon, cloudy with rain moving in overnight. Winds should be light-to-breezy, breeziest along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from 45-60 NNJ to SNJ as rain moves in from the SW by morning.

Sunday (Oct 11) high temperatures should range from about 60-70 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely most of the day into Monday. Expected rainfall range is about a half-inch to 1.5inches. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE, again breeziest along the coast. Overnight lows should range from about 55-65 NNJ to SNJ. Sunday night into Monday morning should be the period when the disorganized but still warmer remnants of Isaias pass over NJ, hence the reason for the temporary tropical feel bump (humidity).

An early look at next week (Oct 12-16) indicates great conditions just behind the departing tropical remnants. I’m seeing lower-70s for highs Mon-Wed with sunny skies. Rain should end by mid-to-late Monday morning. Seeing a cold front Wed into Thurs with highs dropping to 60s likely for rest of the week. Next weekend looks a bit unsettled but let’s check back in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC