Spectacular Conditions After Dorian (Sept 6-8)

Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 5, 2019 20:26

Spectacular Conditions After Dorian (Sept 6-8)

Discussion: Dorian’s far-NW side should bring rain, wind and coastal flooding to at least SENJ on Friday and possibly further N and W into NJ. Winds should gradually pick up overnight tonight and everything should taper off and pull away by early Saturday morning. Please see my previous post for more specific details about Dorian’s affect on NJ. A few upper-level shortwaves will phase into the passing trough with Dorian to produce a powerful mid/high latitude cyclone for E Canada. Behind all this will be solid upper-level flow out of the NW which will drive cooler air into the region to be pulled down further at the surface by the back-side of Dorian’s departing cyclonic flow. At this surface this means beautiful conditions for Saturday and Sunday. We’re talking comfortable temperatures during the day, cool temperatures at night and all with low humidity. These conditions should spill over into the early part of next week with temps and humidity expected to rebuild a little later in the week.

There’s a lot of action in tropics. Of all the current waves out there I’m most interested in Invest 94L off W Africa. This is the first Cape Verde origin storm system that looks to cross the Atlantic Ocean (from Cape Verde towards the Caribbean). Now that the dry Sahara Desert air mass has relaxed Invest 98L has a chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. At this point I only know that it will travel to the W. What it does after approaching the E Caribbean is pure speculation. However if it were to head towards the E US then it would meet an established ridge that could mean trouble. I mentioned this setup in Tuesday’s long-range September outlook. Humberto would be the name of the storm so long as nothing forms sooner. Otherwise Invest 94L could go into the Caribbean towards the Gulf of Mexico or re-curve out to sea before reaching the E US. I’ll be tracking this but responsibly and reasonably. Let’s see if the wave even makes it across the Atlantic Ocean to the E Caribbean.

Friday (Sept 6) high temperatures should reach just into the 70s. Conditions should vary from NWNJ to SENJ. SENJ should see the most rain and wind, NWNJ the least. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE for everyone away from the ocean. Immediate coastal regions are subject to 20-30mph sustained winds with gusts possibly exceeding 50mph. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most areas as winds switch to the N.

Saturday (Sept 7) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should subside out of the N through AM hours and give way to lighter NW flow. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (Sept 8) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates more great conditions. I’m seeing highs reaching the mid-to-upper 70s for most with interior CNJ/SNJ just into the lower-80s. Overnight hours look cool. Let’s see how it looks on Sunday. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr
By Jonathan Carr September 5, 2019 20:26