Stormy Fall Continues

Discussion: A warm sector will bring more anomalous warmth to NJ on Friday with stiff SW winds. This should set up a storm front in the evening but a very short one. The precipitation strip looks very thin on model guidance. However, it could pack a punch. I think most of NJ is on the hook for a brief period of gusty rainfall and rumbles. At a more isolated/localized basis, lightning could be frequent, hail could form (colder low-mid levels this time of year), and winds could become damaging in the form of straight-line (most likely) or tornadic (less likely but non-0% chance). One of those scenarios where many will be saying, “that was it?” while a few/some deal with legit storm hardship. Can’t wait for the comments (sarcastic eye roll).

A cold front will then push through mid-to-late Saturday morning as the day is warming from peak-angle diurnal (solar) heating. The Friday night/Saturday morning low temperatures might be the range of Saturday afternoon’s high temperatures. A delayed onset of the rude awakening. But then a rude awakening with loss of sunlight into Saturday evening. A shot of November Saturday evening through Sunday. The trough, that will swing through, looks very progressive and transient. With that said, we should be back into the 60-70 range next week as another prolonged ridge sets up. I’m feeling another nor’easter later next week. Not gonna lie. Watching the Thursday-Saturday/Sunday period. How close or far from NJ is still yet to be ironed out. Will report accordingly. What a classic meteorological fall though. Wild cold early temperature swings, vibrant foliage, and active coastal storm pattern.

Forecast

Friday (Oct 16) high temperatures should push into the 75-80 range. Skies should be mixed with sun (afternoon break), clouds, a few possible showers, then a stormier main event during evening hours. Thunderstorms could feature frequent lightning, hail, damaging wind gusts and possibly isolated tornados. Expect this to be a very short duration event with a very thin strip of storms/precipitation. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty at times out of the SW. Overnight lows should settle in the 50-55 range NNJ to SNJ, which is interesting for Saturday.

Saturday (Oct 17) high temperatures should reach the 50-55 range with a cold front timing along with the warmest part of the day. This will delay the expected drop in temperature until sunset. After that, you’ll feel it as overnight lows drop to the 28-40 range NNJ elevations to SENJ coasts. Expect breezy-to-gusty winds out of the NW during the day with calmer W/NW winds at night. A few leftover showers might be around Saturday morning but most of the day should be dry from late-morning and forward.

Sunday (Oct 18) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most NJ areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from 30-50 NNJ to SNJ. Quite the range between NNJ elevations and SNJ coasts. Most of NJ between should end up in the 38-45 range.

An early look at next week (Oct 19-23) indicates clear sunny skies through about Wednesday or Thursday, highs in the 60s and lows 40-50. Seeing some possible trouble Thursday into the weekend as another nor’easter might try to form off OBX and get trapped beneath another ridge. This is a classic meteorological fall IMO. Will be tracking.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC