Weekend Outlook – Mixed Transition into Fall

Discussion: The upper jet, observed at 250mb, looks zonal to the N of NJ this weekend. It will try to kink up a little as a trough misses to the N of NJ Monday. That will however introduce a cooler W/NW flow for much of next week. Tonight’s frontal precipitation doesn’t look like a bug deal (high winds, severe outbreak, etc.). I’m thinking a short period of rain and maybe some rumbles within. If anything goes severe, it would be extremely isolated. We then turn cooler, less humid and drier for Saturday. A longer duration rain moves in late Saturday night and should last for much of Sunday with improvement by Monday. Next week will start the official “it feels like fall now” trend. Unleash the Pumkin Latte. The late-summer feel should end after today.

Forecast

Friday (Oct 2) high temperatures today (Friday) reached well into the 80s. Humidity was up and it was likely summer’s last breath before we start seriously transitioning into fall. Skies were mixed with sun and clouds but cloud coverage should increase into evening/overnight hours with showers and possibly rumbles possible. Winds have been out of the W/SW today (as of Friday 1740) but will transition to N/NW by morning after the frontal showers/rumbles push through. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Oct 3) high temperatures should reach the 65-73 range for most of NJ. A less humid feel, improved skies and much more seasonal. Let’s allow through mid-to-late morning for showers to clear SENJ. Should be earlier though. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from 45-60 NNJ to SNJ with a longer period of rain moving in.

Sunday (Oct 4) high temperatures should max in the 60s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy but rain should be isolated/scattered passing showers. It doesn’t look like a crazy rain event but likely a gloomy day. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most NJ locations with rain gradually tapering off into Monday.

An early look at next week (Oct 5-9) indicates amazing conditions. I’m seeing temperatures in the 66-74 range for highs (NWNJ to SENJ). Keep in mind that’s only for a few hours at peak afternoon solar output. Those mornings and late evenings will be chilly. Those nights will feel cold…down into the 40s possibly even 30s for some of the elevations. Coastal areas a bit more buffered from marine influence with lows holding above 50.  Not seeing much rain though, if any. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC