Weekly Outlook – Summer Gasps Back

Discussion: The nor’easter is out of here and good riddance! Although I must admit, it felt kind of good to track a low-pressure system close to the 40N/70W benchmark. I don’t think we’re going to see the last of systems like this for fall and winter. We’re probably looking at a very active storm pattern for the next 6 months as El Nino peaks and begins it’s initial descent early decent sometime late-winter. Whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain will be determined by the timing of cold air masses. I don’t think we’re looking at an overall warm or cold winter. Instead, I think more of the same…very erratic. Spiky warm and cold trends. We’ll see.

For this weekend, the upper levels seem unremarkable other than a general zonal flow to our N and the current decaying upper low fizzling out of existence. We’ll stay under positive height anomalies which supports a warmer feel, especially Wed-Fri. At the lower levels, a weak but broad area of high pressure will pass over the E US from W to E. Tuesday-Wednesday morning will enjoy the N flow on the front side of the high. Thursday-Friday will see S flow, brining temperatures back up into the 80s and noticeably increased humidity. This is a transient incident though as temperatures return back to cooler and declining for Saturday-forward. The temp drop will revolve around a cold front Friday into Saturday morning. Right now, all I see are showers along a mostly dry cold front. Once that’s through, we drop in temp for the weekend. The big question is how much time/space will exist between the cold frontal passage and an unsettled disturbance possible for later in the weekend. That will determine how far the rain makes it into NJ this weekend. There is still a lot of model disagreement on that. Might see a dry NNJ/wet SNJ. More time needed for analysis. So in summary, a dry Monday-Friday, average temps Mon-Tues, milder Wed, warm and humid Thurs-Fri, average Saturday, and weekend rain unsettled.

Forecast

Monday (Sept 28) high temperatures made it into the 60s today (Monday) for most NJ locations. The last drops of the nor’easter ended this morning for SWNJ and this afternoon for NENJ. Winds should remain light out of the N/NW. Remaining clouds should thin out some overnight tonight as lows drop to the 50s away from the ocean and near-60 along the coast.  

Tuesday (Sept 29) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Sept 30)high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Expect humidity to start building in. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Oct 1) high temperatures should reach the lower-80s for many with a humid feel. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SW, a little breezier along the coast. Overnight lows should range from 58-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (Oct 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for a second day in a row. Skies should gradually transition from more sun than clouds in the morning to more clouds than sun in the evening. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to the 55-65 range from NNJ to SNJ with passing rain showers possible.

An early look at the weekend (Oct 3-4) indicates cooler temperatures after the Friday night rainfall pushes through. I’m seeing 65-70 for highs however more rain is possible Saturday night into early next week, making Sunday the rainiest day of the weekend. We have some time so, let’s see how it looks in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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