Discussion: Major Hurricane Irma made landfall this morning between Key West and Marathon, Florida as a category 4 hurricane. She has weakened into a category 3 (still very dangerous between wind speed, storm surge and heavy rainfall!) today and just made
Discussion: Major Hurricane Irma has been forced further to the south and west before making the turn north towards Florida. This should ensure that Irma’s eye moves up the W Florida coast instead of straight up the middle of Florida
Cooler temperatures and clear skies should dominate the weekend. Let’s break it down… Discussion: Between now and Sunday an upper-level longwave trough will weaken over New Jersey and ultimately lift out to sea. This is the very trough I’ve been watching
Discussion: Irma has caused catastrophic damage to Barbuda, St. Martin and the British Virgin Island region. She has tracked just to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, sparing them from the catastrophic inner wind field and is now taking
Discussion: Major Hurricane Irma has directly hit the northern Lesser Antilles overnight. I’m sure you will see images and footage today as Irma moves away from said area. The next immediate concern is Puerto Rico. The latest guidance indicates an
Discussion: I am now confident that Hurricane Irma will not be making direct landfall on New Jersey. The only New Jersey impacts that I am still watching are MUCH less threatening remnants in the form of run-of-mill rain and wind. It’s
Rain and stormy conditions are expected this week. Let’s break it down… Discussion: While everyone is focused on Irma and the upper-level trough that will ultimately dictate the fate of her track later this weekend, the front side of this
Discussion: The northern Lesser Antilles are facing direct impact from Major Hurricane Irma as early as Tuesday night but certainly by Wednesday morning. Secondary impacts in the form of rain and wind (run of mill for the area) should be expected
Discussion: The immediate concern remains for the NE Caribbean Islands/Lesser Antilles. Everyone from the Haiti/Dominican Republic area through about Martinique/St. Lucia should be preparing for at least some level of tropical impact even if just outer fringe spiral band interaction. The
Discussion: Irma’s impact beyond the NE Caribbean is still very uncertain. If you’re here for an exact US landfall prediction then I’m sorry to disappoint. A more practical discussion would be to analyze the modeled steering forces responsible for the recent high-impact US
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